Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:46:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf6af…136c crypto 203 markets active 3d ago coverage 42d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$75 (-2%) realized −$75 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate65%131W / 72L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day10.2pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$128
14 days−$475
30 days−$332
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$290
other 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -11.4% -19.8% 66% 50% -16.9%
≤30d 152 -11.6% -20.0% 62% 54% -18.2%
≤90d 203 -4.8% -13.9% 65% 55% -16.5%
all 203 -4.8% -13.9% 65% 55% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 55% -16.5%
10% -22.1% 36% -24.5%
15% -29.6% 17% -31.8%
20% -36.5% 7% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late -29% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$13 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$75
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses131 / 72
Open positions0
Markets (closed)203 / 203
History coverage42d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 203 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$16 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 14 $74 −$54 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 14 $72 −$3 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 14 $103 −$85 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$4 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 13 $103 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 13 $103 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 13 $103 +$14 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 13 $104 +$9 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 13 $104 +$18 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 13 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 13 $41 +$9 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 13 $41 −$28 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 13 $36 +$11 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 13 $42 +$10 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 13 $52 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 12 $21 +$6 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $16 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 12 $83 +$12 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $21 −$18 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $21 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 11 $36 +$10 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 11 $52 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 11 $28 −$23 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 11 $41 +$11 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 11 $16 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 11 $16 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 11 $19 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 11 $16 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 11 $16 +$5 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 10 $16 +$5 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 10 $16 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 10 $21 +$4 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 10 $21 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 10 $15 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 10 $16 +$5 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 10 $6 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 10 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 13¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $21 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Up 8¢ $20 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $74 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $45 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $24 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $72 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 10¢ $19 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 47¢ $22 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $115 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $103 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 57¢ $105 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $103 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $117 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 57¢ $112 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $104 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $122 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $104 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $41 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $50 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $41 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Down 18¢ $13 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $41 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 73¢ $48 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 474 history records