Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:01:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf6ae…6f0e other 151 markets active 1h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,218 (-1%) realized −$2,218 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate17%25W / 126L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,331per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$16
14 days−$28
30 days−$327
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% +$23
politics 35% −$79
sports 12% −$2,297
world 2% +$117
economics 1% −$2
finance 1% −$2
culture 1% −$2
tech 0% +$2
crypto 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 38 -11.2% -19.7% 11% 3% -10.1%
≤90d 101 -5.8% -14.8% 6% 2% -10.8%
all 151 -1.7% -11.0% 17% 11% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 11% -10.5%
10% -19.5% 11% -19.1%
15% -27.3% 11% -26.9%
20% -34.4% 9% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,914) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$26 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,218
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses25 / 126
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions0
Markets (closed)151 / 151
History coverage128d
Avg bet$1,331
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 151 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 23 $783 −$1 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 23 $1,022 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $787 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 22 $813 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 20 $2,395 −$3 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $824 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $3,880 −$3 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $1,035 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $463 −$1 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $753 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $2,290 −$3 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $567 −$1 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 14 $142 +$2 +1%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 11 $569 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $2,204 −$3 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $649 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $3,557 −$2 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $2,862 −$4 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $501 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $636 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $641 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $785 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $5,284 −$6 -0%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 06 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $712 −$1 -0%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 04 $74 −$74 -100%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $3,137 −$3 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $7,512 −$8 -0%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 02 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $497 −$1 -0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 02 $48 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? Jun 02 $59 $0 +0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $2,145 −$2 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $3,570 −$4 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $793 −$1 -0%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal May 26 $36 −$36 -100%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels May 26 $48 −$48 -100%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) May 25 $45 +$34 +76%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $1,300 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $201 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $202 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $203 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $203 $0 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi May 20 $208 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $207 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $241 $0 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $246 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $235 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 09 $235 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 09 $236 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $781 53m
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $783 1h
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $781 3h
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $782 5h
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $785 25h
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $787 26h
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $812 27h
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $813 29h
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $802 2d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $803 3d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $785 4d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $786 4d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $822 4d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $824 4d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $805 4d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $806 5d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $790 5d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $791 5d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $463 5d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $463 5d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $751 6d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $753 7d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $679 7d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $680 7d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $566 8d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $567 9d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $569 11d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $569 12d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $584 12d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $585 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 523 history records