Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:47:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F6 0xf6ab…fb13 sports 41 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$226 (+4%) realized +$328 · open −$102
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate51%19W / 18L
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$145per market
Trades / day19.4pace
Fees−$73est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$898now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% +$44
other 25% +$163
finance 14% −$32
world 2% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -3.3% -12.5% 51% 46% -4.4%
≤30d 37 -3.3% -12.5% 51% 46% -4.4%
≤90d 37 -3.3% -12.5% 51% 46% -4.4%
all 37 -3.3% -12.5% 51% 46% -4.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 46% -4.4%
10% -20.9% 41% -13.5%
15% -28.5% 22% -21.9%
20% -35.5% 16% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$78 vs −$67 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$898
Realized+$328
Unrealized−$102
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses19 / 18
Est. fees paid−$73
Open positions4
Markets (closed)37 / 41
History coverage4d
Avg bet$145
Trades / day19.4
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? Yes 44¢ 32¢ $500 $367 −$133 (-27%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 80¢ 81¢ $300 $306 +$6 (+2%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Over 69¢ 80¢ $100 $115 +$15 (+15%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Over 91¢ 100¢ $100 $110 +$10 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $102 +$4 +4%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $102 +$25 +25%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $101 +$31 +31%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $152 −$74 -49%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $201 +$52 +26%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $101 −$66 -66%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $17 +$4 +26%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 7.5 Jun 18 $102 −$72 -71%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $101 +$40 +40%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $202 −$107 -53%
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 18 $110 +$3 +2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 18 $308 +$100 +32%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $301 +$32 +11%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $103 −$86 -83%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 6.5 Jun 18 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $51 +$141 +276%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $203 +$189 +93%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $302 +$83 +27%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $217 −$81 -37%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $205 −$132 -64%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $202 −$146 -72%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $204 −$129 -63%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $112 +$221 +197%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $213 +$156 +73%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $101 +$38 +38%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $101 +$31 +31%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $62 −$57 -93%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $103 −$13 -12%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 +$121 +119%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 −$48 -94%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $31 −$26 -84%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $236 +$186 +79%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $205 +$22 +11%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $72 −$15 -21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 45¢ $105 2m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 80¢ $302 14m
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 30¢ $128 22m
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 23¢ $102 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $102 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $101 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $100 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 27¢ $78 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $51 2h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? BUY Yes 44¢ $511 9h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $101 11h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $101 11h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 23¢ $35 19h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 79¢ $201 20h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $101 20h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 8¢ $30 23h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 26¢ $102 23h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 79¢ $17 23h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 29h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 32¢ $95 29h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $202 30h
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL No 94¢ $113 31h
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 92¢ $110 32h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL Yes 42¢ $408 42h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $333 42h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $301 43h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 1¢ $17 43h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 3¢ $31 44h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 7¢ $103 45h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 26¢ $51 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $898.12 · official $899.60 (match) · 89 history records