Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:51:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf6a7…0af9 other 369 markets active 15h ago coverage 141d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,615 (-5%) realized −$5,616 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate60%219W / 146L
Whale WR48%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$320per market
Trades / day9.4pace
Fees−$498est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$68
14 days+$70
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$3,073
sports 35% −$55
world 7% −$2,434
culture 7% +$306
politics 6% −$440
tech 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -4.8% -13.9% 85% 4% -8.6%
≤30d 69 -2.4% -11.7% 90% 4% -9.7%
≤90d 313 +0.6% -9.0% 64% 4% -9.0%
all 365 -2.4% -11.7% 60% 5% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 5% -13.9%
10% -20.2% 4% -22.1%
15% -27.9% 2% -29.6%
20% -34.9% 2% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 48% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -5% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$90 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$5,616
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses219 / 146
Whale WR (big bets)48%
Est. fees paid−$498
Open positions4
Markets (closed)365 / 369
History coverage141d
Avg bet$320
Trades / day9.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 365 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +5%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 15? Jun 15 $52 +$1 +1%
Will Love Island USA be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June Jun 15 $144 −$2 -1%
Will Wemby Cry During the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $226 +$74 +33%
Will Claude by Anthropic be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on J Jun 13 $160 $0 -0%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $592 +$8 +1%
Will Future perform "Game Time" at 2026 FIFA Opening Ceremony? Jun 13 $200 $0 +0%
Will Future perform "TEFLON DON" at 2026 FIFA Opening Ceremony? Jun 13 $266 $0 +0%
Will Future perform "TOO FAST" at 2026 FIFA Opening Ceremony? Jun 13 $288 $0 +0%
Will Future perform "Stick Talk" at 2026 FIFA Opening Ceremony? Jun 13 $200 $0 +0%
Will Future perform "712PM" at 2026 FIFA Opening Ceremony? Jun 13 $253 $0 +0%
Will Future perform "PUFFIN ON ZOOTIEZ" at 2026 FIFA Opening Ceremony? Jun 13 $251 $0 +0%
Will Future perform "LIL DEMON" at 2026 FIFA Opening Ceremony? Jun 13 $300 $0 +0%
Will Future perform "Real Sisters" at 2026 FIFA Opening Ceremony? Jun 13 $259 $0 +0%
Will Future perform "Thought It Was a Drought" at 2026 FIFA Opening Ce Jun 13 $251 $0 +0%
Will Future perform "Fuck Up Some Commas" at 2026 FIFA Opening Ceremon Jun 13 $143 $0 +0%
Will Future perform "Wicked" at 2026 FIFA Opening Ceremony? Jun 13 $401 $0 +0%
Will Future perform "Like That" at 2026 FIFA Opening Ceremony? Jun 13 $320 $0 +0%
Will Future perform "Same Damn Time" at 2026 FIFA Opening Ceremony? Jun 13 $312 $0 +0%
Will Future perform "Sh!t" at 2026 FIFA Opening Ceremony? Jun 13 $302 $0 +0%
Will Future perform "Mask Off" at 2026 FIFA Opening Ceremony? Jun 13 $367 $0 +0%
Will Future perform "March Madness" at 2026 FIFA Opening Ceremony? Jun 13 $500 $0 +0%
Will Planet Fitness be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 1 Jun 13 $36 $0 +1%
Will "I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift" be the #1 song on US Spoti Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Will ICEMAN be No.1 for 2 weeks? Jun 12 $537 +$1 +0%
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 song on US Spotify this Jun 12 $10 −$7 -67%
Will "Backrooms" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 27m? Jun 10 $10 $0 +1%
Will "Backrooms" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 27m and 30m? Jun 10 $10 $0 +1%
Will "The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act" Opening Weekend Box Of Jun 10 $19 $0 +1%
Will "Backrooms" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 33m? Jun 10 $69 $0 +0%
Will "The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act" Opening Weekend Box Of Jun 10 $127 $0 +0%
Will "Scary Movie" score at least 60 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatomete Jun 08 $874 +$1 +0%
Will "The Breadwinner" score at least 70 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomato Jun 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will "The Breadwinner" score at least 80 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomato Jun 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will "Remarkably Bright Creatures" be the top global Netflix movie thi Jun 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will ICEMAN be No.1 for 1 week? Jun 03 $10 $0 +1%
Will "Remarkably Bright Creatures" be the top US Netflix movie this we Jun 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will "GOAT" be the top global Netflix movie this week? Jun 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will "GOAT" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? Jun 03 $20 $0 +0%
Will "Dead Man's Wire" be the top US Netflix movie this week? Jun 03 $22 $0 +0%
Will "Untold UK: Vinnie Jones" be the top US Netflix movie this week? Jun 03 $26 $0 +0%
Will "The Theory of Everything" be the #2 global Netflix movie this we Jun 03 $27 $0 +0%
Will "Stolen Baby: The Murder of Heidi Broussard" be the top global Ne Jun 03 $29 $0 +0%
Will "Swapped" be the top US Netflix movie this week? Jun 03 $30 $0 +0%
Will "In Her Shoes" be the top US Netflix movie this week? Jun 03 $34 $0 +0%
Will "Untold UK: Vinnie Jones" be the #2 global Netflix movie this wee Jun 03 $37 $0 +0%
Will "In Her Shoes" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? Jun 03 $50 $0 +0%
Will "Ladies First" be the top US Netflix movie this week? Jun 03 $50 $0 +0%
Will "Remarkably Bright Creatures" be the #2 global Netflix movie this Jun 03 $53 $0 +0%
Will "In Her Shoes" be the top global Netflix movie this week? Jun 03 $60 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $5 14h
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 15? SELL Yes $0 2d
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 15? BUY No 94¢ $11 2d
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 15? BUY No 94¢ $8 2d
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 15? BUY Yes $0 2d
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 15? BUY Yes $0 2d
Will Love Island USA be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June SELL No 97¢ $89 3d
Will Love Island USA be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June BUY No 96¢ $115 3d
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 15? SELL No 95¢ $5 3d
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 15? BUY No 94¢ $5 3d
Will Wemby Cry During the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 77¢ $155 3d
Will Wemby Cry During the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 70¢ $71 3d
Will Claude by Anthropic be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on J SELL No 96¢ $54 4d
Will Claude by Anthropic be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on J SELL No 96¢ $5 4d
Will Claude by Anthropic be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on J SELL No 96¢ $5 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 100¢ $300 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 98¢ $292 4d
Will Future perform "Game Time" at 2026 FIFA Opening Ceremony? BUY Yes 100¢ $200 4d
Will Future perform "March Madness" at 2026 FIFA Opening Ceremony? BUY No 100¢ $500 4d
Will Future perform "LIL DEMON" at 2026 FIFA Opening Ceremony? BUY No 100¢ $300 4d
Will Future perform "PUFFIN ON ZOOTIEZ" at 2026 FIFA Opening Ceremony? BUY No 100¢ $251 4d
Will Future perform "Fuck Up Some Commas" at 2026 FIFA Opening Ceremon BUY No 100¢ $143 4d
Will Future perform "712PM" at 2026 FIFA Opening Ceremony? BUY No 100¢ $253 4d
Will Future perform "Same Damn Time" at 2026 FIFA Opening Ceremony? BUY No 100¢ $312 4d
Will Future perform "Thought It Was a Drought" at 2026 FIFA Opening Ce BUY No 100¢ $251 4d
Will Future perform "Real Sisters" at 2026 FIFA Opening Ceremony? BUY No 100¢ $259 4d
Will Future perform "Mask Off" at 2026 FIFA Opening Ceremony? BUY No 100¢ $367 4d
Will Future perform "Wicked" at 2026 FIFA Opening Ceremony? BUY No 100¢ $401 4d
Will Future perform "Like That" at 2026 FIFA Opening Ceremony? BUY No 100¢ $320 4d
Will Future perform "TOO FAST" at 2026 FIFA Opening Ceremony? BUY No 100¢ $288 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.70 · official $48.23 (match) · 1637 history records