Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:51:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
F6 0xf6a5…3ecb other 60 markets active 2h ago coverage 616d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$31 (+1%) realized +$31 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate28%16W / 42L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$81per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$84now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$8
14 days+$8
30 days+$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 61% −$11
other 27% +$12
crypto 5% $0
sports 2% +$30
economics 2% $0
culture 2% $0
world 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-1.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +37.8% +24.7% 25% 25% +3.3%
≤30d 16 +18.1% +6.9% 25% 12% -3.4%
≤90d 47 +11.4% +0.8% 28% 15% -7.8%
all 58 +9.2% -1.2% 28% 12% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.2% 12% -8.9%
10% -10.7% 12% -17.7%
15% -19.3% 12% -25.6%
20% -27.2% 12% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$0 · ×6.42 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.44 per $1 lost it wins $2.44
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

616d coverage
Net worth$84
Realized+$31
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses16 / 42
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)58 / 60
History coverage616d
Avg bet$81
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? No 100¢ 99¢ $43 $43 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $41 $41 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $23 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $6 +$8 +152%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $16 $0 -0%
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $14 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $19 $0 -0%
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 06 $18 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $20 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 05 $24 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in May? Jun 05 $38 $0 +0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 28 $14 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 27 $18 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 26 $16 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $21 $0 -0%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees May 22 $8 +$11 +140%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $18 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 21 $12 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $16 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $81 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 12 $86 $0 -0%
Avalanche vs. Wild May 12 $7 +$6 +76%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $78 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 08 $81 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $75 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $77 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 3? May 06 $37 $0 +0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $157 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 02 $80 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $79 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $161 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $83 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 24 $80 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $80 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $82 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 22 $80 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $77 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Apr 19 $77 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 18 $77 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 18 $84 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $79 $0 -0%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $7 +$5 +76%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $8 +$5 +72%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $12 +$7 +62%
Oilers vs. Utah Apr 08 $7 −$7 -100%
Blackhawks vs. Sharks Apr 08 $13 +$7 +59%
EdgeX FDV above $3B one day after launch? Apr 06 $18 $0 +0%
Trump out as President by March 31? Apr 06 $13 $0 +2%
Will Solana reach $160 in March? Apr 06 $27 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 05 $3 $0 +1%
Based FDV above $4B one day after launch? Feb 28 $51 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? Feb 13 $51 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $41 1h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $23 6h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $23 7h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 39¢ $6 4d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $16 5d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $16 5d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $43 5d
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $14 6d
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $14 6d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $19 12d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $19 12d
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $18 13d
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $18 13d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $20 14d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $20 14d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $14 22d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $14 22d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $24 22d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $18 23d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $18 23d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $16 24d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $16 24d
Will Solana dip to $40 in May? BUY No 100¢ $38 27d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $21 27d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $21 28d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $18 29d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $18 29d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees BUY Toronto Blue Jays 41¢ $8 29d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $12 29d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $12 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $83.75 · official $83.75 (match) · 301 history records