Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T14:11:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf6a0…4321 crypto 16 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$50 (-9%) realized −$50 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate75%12W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day8.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 59% −$19
other 37% −$65
sports 4% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +12.6% +1.9% 75% 62% -21.1%
≤30d 16 +12.6% +1.9% 75% 62% -21.1%
≤90d 16 +12.6% +1.9% 75% 62% -21.1%
all 16 +12.6% +1.9% 75% 62% -21.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.9% 62% -21.1%
10% -7.8% 62% -28.6%
15% -16.7% 50% -35.5%
20% -24.9% 38% -41.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$51 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$50
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses12 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage3d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day8.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$4 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 27 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 27 $26 +$21 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 27 $26 +$16 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 27 $50 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 27 $51 +$18 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 27 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 27 $26 +$14 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 27 $30 +$1 +4%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $24 +$13 +52%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $15 +$9 +62%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $8 +$7 +90%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $20 −$12 -61%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $93 −$92 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $70 +$23 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $25 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $25 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $25 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 6h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 67¢ $14 9h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 9h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $15 30h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $8 35h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 22¢ $8 35h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $20 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 65¢ $93 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $70 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 37 history records