Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:43:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
F6 0xf69f…227e politics 148 markets active 1h ago coverage 122d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$165 (-0%) realized −$165 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate21%31W / 115L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,445per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$1,088now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$19
14 days+$87
30 days+$476
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 48% −$120
other 30% −$714
sports 14% +$655
culture 3% −$6
world 2% −$4
economics 2% −$2
tech 1% −$2
crypto 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-2.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 42 +11.4% +0.8% 19% 14% -8.8%
≤90d 110 +3.9% -6.0% 16% 12% -9.8%
all 146 +7.9% -2.4% 21% 15% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.4% 15% -9.6%
10% -11.7% 15% -18.3%
15% -20.3% 13% -26.2%
20% -28.1% 11% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,001) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +11% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$18 · ×3.34 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$1,088
Realized−$165
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses31 / 115
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)146 / 148
History coverage122d
Avg bet$1,445
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 146 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? No 99¢ 99¢ $880 $879 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $209 $209 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $2,114 −$2 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $1,492 −$2 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $825 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $2,439 −$3 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $3,514 −$4 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $867 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $5,068 −$5 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $1,859 −$3 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $1,056 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $2,452 −$3 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $832 −$1 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $906 −$1 -0%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 06 $58 +$63 +109%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $896 −$1 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $673 −$1 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $2,493 −$4 -0%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 04 $49 +$63 +129%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $5,438 −$4 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $963 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $709 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $52 +$44 +86%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? Jun 02 $289 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.40 in May? Jun 02 $342 +$1 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $1,215 −$2 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $405 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $1,753 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $2,139 −$2 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $859 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $2,185 −$2 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $249 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $697 −$1 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 25 $532 −$1 -0%
Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5) May 25 $84 −$84 -100%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $2,380 −$3 -0%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal May 23 $44 +$49 +109%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $810 −$1 -0%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 May 22 $52 +$51 +97%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 21 $620 −$1 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 21 $2,206 −$3 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $4,187 −$5 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 20 $843 −$1 -0%
Will FC St. Pauli 1910 win on 2026-05-16? May 20 $690 +$355 +52%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $1,867 −$2 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $511 −$1 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 10 $704 −$1 -0%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-08? May 10 $873 −$873 -100%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $3,258 −$4 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 06 $1,419 −$2 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 05 $1,315 −$2 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 28 $1,324 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $880 1h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $724 17h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $725 20h
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $685 21h
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $686 22h
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $823 25h
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $825 26h
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $870 42h
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $871 44h
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $771 2d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $772 2d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $795 3d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $796 3d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $805 5d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $806 5d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $820 5d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $821 5d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $865 6d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $867 6d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $834 6d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $835 6d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $736 7d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $737 7d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $209 7d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,056 7d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,056 8d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,064 8d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,066 8d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $831 8d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $832 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,088.27 · official $1,088.27 (match) · 500 history records