Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:47:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf69f…90bc other 178 markets active 1h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$47 (-0%) realized −$47 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate14%24W / 153L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$131per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$15
14 days−$26
30 days−$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 32% −$27
other 23% −$23
sports 19% −$7
crypto 6% −$11
world 6% −$1
economics 6% −$3
culture 3% −$2
finance 3% −$3
tech 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -0.7% -10.1% 16% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 79 -0.8% -10.2% 11% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 165 -0.5% -10.0% 13% 0% -9.8%
all 177 -0.5% -10.0% 14% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized−$47
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses24 / 153
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)177 / 178
History coverage100d
Avg bet$131
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 177 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $63 $63 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 18 $211 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Jun 17 $48 −$1 -3%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $370 −$1 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $215 $0 -0%
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 16 $105 −$3 -2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $185 −$1 -0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $49 −$1 -1%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $113 −$1 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $261 −$1 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $40 +$1 +3%
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $60 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $116 −$2 -2%
Will Sweden reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $29 $0 -1%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $163 −$1 -0%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $47 −$1 -2%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 14 $54 −$1 -2%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 13 $24 $0 +1%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $59 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 13 $44 $0 -1%
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 Jun 12 $14 $0 +0%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $43 $0 -0%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 12 $53 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $341 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $92 $0 -0%
Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 11 $37 −$1 -2%
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 10 $52 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $46 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Jun 10 $66 −$2 -3%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 09 $78 −$1 -1%
Will Andy Beshear be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? Jun 09 $20 −$1 -3%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $124 −$1 -1%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 07 $97 −$1 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 06 $59 −$1 -1%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $125 $0 -0%
Will a player representing Portugal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 Jun 06 $57 −$1 -2%
Will a player representing Argentina be the top goalscorer at the 2026 Jun 06 $42 −$1 -2%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $52 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $55 $0 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $46 $0 -0%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 04 $47 $0 -1%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $50 $0 -1%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $113 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 04 $47 −$3 -6%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 03 $58 $0 +0%
Will James Talarico be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? Jun 02 $10 $0 -5%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $172 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 01 $109 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 01 $55 −$1 -2%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 01 $88 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $171 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $63 43m
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 98¢ $51 1h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 98¢ $51 8h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? SELL No 94¢ $46 8h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 96¢ $48 16h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $68 17h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $17 21h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $52 21h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $50 22h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $50 28h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 96¢ $55 28h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 96¢ $55 33h
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 95¢ $48 34h
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 96¢ $48 39h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $63 39h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $63 44h
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 90¢ $48 45h
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 90¢ $49 2d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $57 2d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $57 2d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 93¢ $55 2d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 93¢ $55 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $41 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $40 2d
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $60 2d
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $60 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $68 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $69 3d
Will Sweden reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $29 3d
Will Sweden reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $29 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.07 · official $63.30 (match) · 732 history records