Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:38:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf69f…4565 politics 89 markets active 2h ago coverage 471d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$6 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate35%30W / 56L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$98per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$162now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$5
politics 27% −$3
world 15% −$7
sports 13% −$10
tech 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
culture 0% $0
economics 0% $0
finance 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.7% -10.1% 60% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 10 -0.9% -10.3% 30% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 21 -1.0% -10.4% 24% 0% -9.6%
all 86 -3.2% -12.4% 35% 1% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 1% -9.8%
10% -20.8% 0% -18.4%
15% -28.5% 0% -26.3%
20% -35.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

471d coverage
Net worth$162
Realized−$6
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses30 / 56
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)86 / 89
History coverage471d
Avg bet$98
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 86 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 90¢ 89¢ $163 $162 −$1 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 83¢ 90¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+8%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $173 +$1 +1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $7 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $289 +$1 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $145 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $10 $0 -5%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $20 $0 -2%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $146 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $146 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $165 −$5 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $166 $0 +0%
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most Apr 25 $59 $0 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 23 $25 $0 -2%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 22 $60 −$1 -2%
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? Apr 21 $68 −$2 -2%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 14 $2,279 +$2 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 13 $1,092 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $19 −$1 -4%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $33 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 12 $1,081 −$1 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $107 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 10 $1,187 +$1 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Dec 27 $5 $0 +1%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Dec 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 26 $6 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $6 −$1 -16%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 18 $6 $0 +3%
Will Al-Hilal win the FIFA Club World Cup? Aug 10 $6 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Jul 26 $7 $0 +1%
Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? Jul 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 26 $4 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Jul 26 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Jul 26 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 25 $10 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out before October? Jul 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jul 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Seán Kelly win the Irish Presidential Election? Jul 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 24 $5 +$1 +15%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Jul 09 $5 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2500 on July 9? Jul 09 $5 $0 +2%
Will Chelsea win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 09 $7 $0 +2%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 08 $5 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 120–134 times July 4–11? Jul 08 $5 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 05 $5 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 04 $5 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on July 31? Jul 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 03 $6 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Jul 03 $6 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $163 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $12 15h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $11 16h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $162 31h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $162 31h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $7 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $60 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $86 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $145 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 84¢ $57 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 84¢ $89 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 84¢ $64 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $82 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $144 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $144 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 64¢ $145 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 64¢ $145 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $9 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $7 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 5d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 12¢ $20 7d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 13¢ $6 7d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 12¢ $14 7d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $107 8d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $38 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $162.10 · official $160.98 (match) · 255 history records