Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T02:08:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
F6 0xf69e…440d sports 6 markets active 7d ago coverage 624d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$162 (-20%) realized −$161 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$133per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$185now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% −$191
politics 29% +$26
other 24% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-38.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 5 -31.6% -38.1% 40% 20% -34.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.1% 20% -34.1%
10% -44.0% 0% -40.4%
15% -49.4% 0% -46.2%
20% -54.4% 0% -51.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
7.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$64 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

624d coverage
Net worth$185
Realized−$161
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage624d
Avg bet$133
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $185 $185 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 22 $125 +$9 +7%
UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes Sep 25 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 21 $148 −$23 -16%
Chelsea wins the Premier League? Apr 01 $178 −$118 -66%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 05 $104 +$18 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $76 6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $114 7d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? SELL Yes 93¢ $134 246d
UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes BUY Reyes 34¢ $50 273d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? BUY Yes 87¢ $125 277d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 32¢ $125 277d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 38¢ $68 277d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 38¢ $76 278d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 37¢ $4 278d
Chelsea wins the Premier League? SELL Yes 0¢ $4 450d
Chelsea wins the Premier League? BUY Yes 4¢ $24 542d
Chelsea wins the Premier League? BUY Yes 4¢ $13 542d
Chelsea wins the Premier League? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 542d
Chelsea wins the Premier League? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 542d
Chelsea wins the Premier League? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 542d
Chelsea wins the Premier League? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 542d
Chelsea wins the Premier League? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 542d
Chelsea wins the Premier League? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 542d
Chelsea wins the Premier League? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 543d
Chelsea wins the Premier League? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 543d
Chelsea wins the Premier League? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 543d
Chelsea wins the Premier League? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 543d
Chelsea wins the Premier League? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 543d
Chelsea wins the Premier League? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 543d
Chelsea wins the Premier League? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 543d
Chelsea wins the Premier League? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 543d
Chelsea wins the Premier League? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 543d
Chelsea wins the Premier League? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 543d
Chelsea wins the Premier League? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 543d
Chelsea wins the Premier League? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 543d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $184.96 · official $184.96 (match) · 60 history records