Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:46:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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F6 0xf69b…0a45 crypto 440 markets active 1h ago coverage 107d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 106d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$10,706 (+7%) realized +$10,727 · open −$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate44%194W / 244L
Whale WR92%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$368per market
Trades / day28.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$202now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 107d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$293
world 2% −$309
other 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 120 -33.9% -40.2% 13% 12% -38.9%
≤30d 163 +15.2% +4.3% 29% 28% +0.7%
≤90d 388 -6.4% -15.3% 41% 18% -9.5%
all 438 -6.0% -14.9% 44% 18% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.9% 18% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here -23.1% 16% -18.1%
15% -30.5% 14% -26.0%
20% -37.3% 12% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 92% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -24% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$51 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$202
Realized+$10,727
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses194 / 244
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)438 / 440
History coverage107d ⚠
Avg bet$368
Trades / day28.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 438 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? No 8¢ 8¢ $170 $150 −$20 (-12%)
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? No 54¢ 52¢ $54 $52 −$2 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 June 8-14? Jun 15 $215 +$106 +49%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 June 8-14? Jun 15 $18 −$17 -96%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $176 −$164 -93%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 8-14? Jun 14 $377 −$367 -97%
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 14? Jun 14 $24 +$36 +148%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 June 8-14? Jun 14 $87 −$85 -98%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $95 −$17 -18%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 14? Jun 14 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 June 8-14? Jun 14 $44 −$43 -97%
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 13? Jun 14 $9 −$1 -11%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $166 −$158 -95%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 13? Jun 13 $35 −$33 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $71 −$70 -99%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 12? Jun 13 $70 −$67 -95%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 12? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 12? Jun 12 $86 −$28 -32%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 12? Jun 12 $175 −$163 -93%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $52 −$49 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $24 −$23 -95%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $61 +$43 +71%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? Jun 12 $125 −$121 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $73 −$15 -21%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,200 on June 12? Jun 12 $12 −$10 -88%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 11? Jun 11 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $232 −$221 -96%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 8-14? Jun 11 $20 −$5 -25%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $52 −$16 -32%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $102 −$96 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 11? Jun 11 $54 −$50 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 12? Jun 11 $10 −$4 -44%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 11? Jun 11 $67 −$63 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 11? Jun 11 $18 −$13 -71%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $2 −$1 -65%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $127 −$115 -91%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 12? Jun 10 $50 −$40 -80%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 10? Jun 10 $108 −$101 -94%
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 10? Jun 10 $158 −$148 -94%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 10? Jun 10 $69 −$68 -98%
Will Ethereum reach $1,650 on June 10? Jun 10 $105 −$54 -52%
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $42 +$16 +39%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $18 −$17 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $121 +$36 +30%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? Jun 10 $17 +$6 +36%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $486 +$19 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $58,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 9? Jun 09 $190 +$68 +36%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $129 +$287 +223%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $14 +$25 +183%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 9? Jun 09 $150 −$22 -14%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $99 −$99 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? BUY No 54¢ $56 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? BUY No 8¢ $85 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? BUY No 9¢ $90 5h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 June 8-14? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 June 8-14? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 6h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 June 8-14? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 6h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 June 8-14? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 6h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 14? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 6h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 8-14? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 10h
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 14? SELL Yes 60¢ $60 10h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 8-14? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 10h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 8-14? SELL Yes 0¢ $3 10h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 8-14? SELL Yes 0¢ $3 10h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 8-14? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 14h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 June 8-14? BUY Yes 4¢ $15 14h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 5¢ $80 14h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 June 8-14? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 15h
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 14? BUY Yes 23¢ $24 16h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 8¢ $43 17h
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 14? SELL Yes 29¢ $69 17h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 14? BUY Yes 5¢ $18 18h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 18h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 18h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 14? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 18h
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 17¢ $90 18h
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 19h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 2¢ $53 19h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 14? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 19h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 14? BUY Yes 5¢ $23 19h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 14? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $202.45 · official $202.45 (match) · 3500 history records