Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:36:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
F6 0xf699…b2e4 politics 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 279d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate36%16W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 25% +$2
world 24% −$2
sports 18% $0
other 17% $0
culture 6% $0
economics 5% $0
crypto 2% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +1.6% -8.1% 33% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 10 +0.1% -9.5% 40% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 10 +0.1% -9.5% 40% 0% -10.0%
all 44 +0.1% -9.5% 36% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

279d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses16 / 28
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage279d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 98¢ 98¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $33 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $30 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $2 $0 +5%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $58 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $28 +$2 +7%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $11 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 24 $30 −$2 -8%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $29 +$1 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 24 $31 −$2 -6%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 23 $35 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Dec 28 $31 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Dec 02 $24 $0 +2%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 27 $5 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 27 $2 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Oct 27 $3 $0 +4%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? Oct 27 $15 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 27 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in October? Oct 26 $18 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Oct 26 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 26 $45 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 26 $16 $0 -2%
Will Heather Humphreys win by 0–5%? Oct 24 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 23 $6 $0 +0%
Will elections be called before a new Prime Minister is appointed? Oct 22 $17 +$1 +6%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 12 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 12 $17 $0 +0%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 11 $1 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Oct 11 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Oct 11 $30 $0 +2%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 10 $13 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 10 $10 $0 -0%
Will Z.ai have the top AI model on December 31? Oct 10 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 10 $39 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 05 $30 $0 +0%
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Oct 05 $30 $0 -0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 04 $30 $0 +1%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 26 $30 +$1 +4%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Sep 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Sep 16 $25 $0 +0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 16 $28 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30? Sep 16 $3 $0 -12%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 15 $30 $0 +1%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 14 $30 $0 +0%
Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 13 $30 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 46¢ $33 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 46¢ $33 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $30 9h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $30 12h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 18h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 19h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 19h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $30 23d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $30 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 79¢ $2 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 79¢ $15 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 79¢ $13 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 74¢ $28 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 66¢ $7 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 66¢ $4 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 66¢ $11 24d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $28 24d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $28 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 37¢ $28 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 40¢ $23 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 40¢ $7 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 92¢ $30 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 89¢ $29 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $14 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $16 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $11 26d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $35 26d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $35 26d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $4 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.40 · official $0.00 (match) · 196 history records