Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:08:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf698…3c36 sports 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$32 (-10%) realized −$31 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate60%25W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$18
14 days−$61
30 days−$61
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$36
other 3% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-1.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +6.8% -3.4% 64% 55% -22.9%
≤30d 23 -12.0% -20.4% 52% 48% -37.1%
≤90d 39 +10.3% -0.2% 62% 59% -22.7%
all 42 +9.0% -1.4% 60% 57% -23.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.4% 57% -23.5%
10% -10.8% 45% -30.8%
15% -19.4% 33% -37.5%
20% -27.3% 33% -43.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +33% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized−$31
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses25 / 17
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)42 / 43
History coverage106d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Card) Rafael Fiziev 52¢ 50¢ $57 $56 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Fight Night: Javier Reyes vs. Kaan Ofli (Featherweight, Prelims) Jun 21 $62 −$4 -7%
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Pr Jun 21 $1 +$1 +101%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 21 $2 +$1 +31%
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Jun 21 $10 −$1 -5%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 21 $4 $0 +10%
Will the fight be won by submission? Jun 21 $2 $0 +14%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 21 $6 +$2 +31%
UFC Fight Night: Melissa Mullins vs. Bia Mesquita (Women's Bantamweigh Jun 21 $10 +$2 +17%
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 20 $16 −$16 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $5 −$4 -75%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $2 +$1 +58%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 14 $27 −$27 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 12 $7 −$7 -98%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 09 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Jake Matthews vs. Carlston Harris (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $1 $0 +29%
UFC Fight Night: Joanderson Brito vs. Jordan Leavitt (Featherweight, P Jun 07 $1 +$1 +55%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $3 +$3 +114%
UFC Fight Night: Yuneisy Duben vs. Jeisla Chaves (Women's Flyweight, P Jun 06 $1 −$1 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 04 $5 −$5 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Ma Jun 03 $3 +$1 +20%
UFC Fight Night: Aoriqileng vs. Cody Haddon (Bantamweight, Prelims) Jun 03 $3 +$1 +32%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 23 $20 $0 -0%
MVP Fight Night: Nate Diaz vs. Mike Perry May 17 $2 +$1 +60%
MVP Fight Night: Francis Ngannou vs. Philipe Lins May 17 $4 $0 +11%
MVP Fight Night: Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano May 17 $5 +$1 +18%
Fight to Go the Distance? May 10 $5 +$12 +240%
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) May 10 $2 −$1 -49%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $2 +$1 +26%
UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, May 06 $5 +$4 +86%
Will Carlos Prates win by KO or TKO? May 06 $2 +$2 +97%
UFC Fight Night: Gilbert Burns vs. Mike Malott (Welterweight, Main Car Apr 18 $1 −$1 -98%
UFC 327: Charles Radtke vs. Francisco Prado (Welterweight, Early Preli Apr 12 $1 +$1 +57%
UFC 327: Kevin Holland vs. Randy Brown (Welterweight, Prelims) Apr 12 $2 +$2 +86%
UFC 327: Tatiana Suarez vs. Loopy Godínez (Women's Strawweight, Early Apr 12 $3 +$2 +67%
UFC Fight Night: Renato Moicano vs. Chris Duncan (Lightweight, Main Ca Apr 05 $1 +$1 +146%
UFC Fight Night: Thomas Petersen vs. Guilherme Pat (Heavyweight, Preli Apr 05 $3 +$3 +90%
Floyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao 2 Mar 29 $1 $0 -6%
UFC Fight Night: Israel Adesanya vs. Joe Pyfer (Middleweight, Main Car Mar 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Josh Emmett win by KO or TKO? Mar 12 $2 −$2 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Josh Emmett vs. Kevin Vallejos (Featherweight, Main C Mar 12 $5 −$5 -100%
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card) Mar 09 $2 +$4 +178%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Rafael Fiziev 52¢ $58 1h
UFC Fight Night: Javier Reyes vs. Kaan Ofli (Featherweight, Prelims) SELL Javier Reyes 57¢ $58 2h
UFC Fight Night: Javier Reyes vs. Kaan Ofli (Featherweight, Prelims) BUY Javier Reyes 60¢ $62 5h
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) SELL Conor McGregor 32¢ $10 5h
UFC Fight Night: Melissa Mullins vs. Bia Mesquita (Women's Bantamweigh BUY Bia Mesquita 85¢ $10 27h
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Kyoji Horiguchi 41¢ $15 27h
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Pr BUY Luana Santos 49¢ $1 4d
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Kyoji Horiguchi 41¢ $1 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Derrick Lewis $1 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Bo Nickal 76¢ $5 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $20 7d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 23¢ $5 7d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 17¢ $7 9d
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Over 61¢ $5 12d
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 76¢ $2 12d
Will the fight be won by submission? BUY No 87¢ $2 12d
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 67¢ $2 12d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 86¢ $2 12d
UFC Fight Night: Yuneisy Duben vs. Jeisla Chaves (Women's Flyweight, P BUY Yuneisy Duben 30¢ $1 15d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 84¢ $1 17d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 61¢ $1 17d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $5 17d
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Bo Nickal 74¢ $1 17d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 84¢ $1 17d
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main BUY Gabriel Bonfim 46¢ $3 18d
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 69¢ $2 24d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 96¢ $2 24d
UFC Fight Night: Aoriqileng vs. Cody Haddon (Bantamweight, Prelims) BUY Cody Haddon 75¢ $3 24d
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Ma BUY Song Yadong 83¢ $3 24d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 64¢ $1 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.69 · official $55.69 (match) · 106 history records