Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:17:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf697…c72c crypto 221 markets active 0h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$242 (-6%) realized −$241 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate47%103W / 117L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day19.4pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$67
7 days−$107
14 days−$38
30 days−$318
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$337
crypto 18% −$75
culture 17% +$50
sports 13% +$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-26.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -14.3% -22.5% 50% 44% -13.0%
≤30d 220 -18.2% -26.0% 47% 37% -16.8%
≤90d 220 -18.2% -26.0% 47% 37% -16.8%
all 220 -18.2% -26.0% 47% 37% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.0% 37% -16.8%
10% -33.1% 24% -24.7%
15% -39.6% 15% -32.0%
20% -45.5% 8% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$10 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$68
Realized−$241
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses103 / 117
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)220 / 221
History coverage30d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day19.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 220 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 48¢ $69 $68 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 +$19 +38%
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) Jun 18 $39 +$11 +27%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $98 −$59 -60%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $49 +$49 +101%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $553 −$504 -91%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $435 +$118 +27%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $286 +$150 +52%
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 17 $31 +$4 +13%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1 $0 +17%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1 $0 +5%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1 $0 -1%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1 $0 -6%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1 $0 -13%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1 $0 -44%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $186 +$58 +31%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $100 +$46 +46%
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m Jun 16 $99 +$41 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +11%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $13 −$10 -72%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $23 −$18 -78%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $24 +$10 +42%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Neither team to score first? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $13 +$11 +82%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Will "Backrooms" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 10m and 11m? Jun 14 $24 −$23 -94%
Will "Backrooms" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than 10m? Jun 14 $24 −$22 -90%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $8 −$7 -85%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 Jun 13 $162 −$23 -14%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 Jun 13 $218 +$20 +9%
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? Jun 13 $32 +$35 +110%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $26 +$7 +26%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $18 +$8 +44%
Will "Frank" be said during the next Spider-Man trailer? Jun 12 $3 −$1 -58%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? Jun 10 $21 +$19 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 09 $3 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 09 $9 −$8 -87%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domest Jun 09 $250 +$98 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 07 $2 $0 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $70 14m
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 72¢ $70 39m
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 1h
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) BUY Uzbekistan 78¢ $39 16h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 21¢ $40 17h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $98 18h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $49 22h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes $48 22h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $553 26h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 90¢ $552 35h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $435 37h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $435 37h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $41 40h
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $35 41h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 41h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 41h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 41h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 41h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 41h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 41h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $244 41h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) SELL Iraq 87¢ $245 41h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Iraq 66¢ $47 42h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Iraq 65¢ $139 42h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $146 44h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m SELL Yes 30¢ $40 45h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $100 2d
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m SELL Yes 29¢ $100 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.97 · official $67.97 (match) · 625 history records