Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:08:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F6 0xf697…a0db other 88 markets active 1h ago coverage 406d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$335 (+3%) realized +$310 · open +$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate56%48W / 38L
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$136per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$79now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% −$910
politics 27% +$1,315
sports 3% +$103
world 2% +$11
culture 1% −$140
crypto 0% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 2 +269.5% +234.3% 100% 100% +33.9%
all 86 +2.5% -7.3% 56% 50% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 50% -6.9%
10% -16.2% 40% -15.8%
15% -24.3% 34% -23.9%
20% -31.7% 23% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +48% too few recent
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$73 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

406d coverage
Net worth$79
Realized+$310
Unrealized+$25
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses48 / 38
Open positions2
Markets (closed)86 / 88
History coverage406d
Avg bet$136
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 86 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 25¢ 40¢ $50 $78 +$28 (+57%)
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-81%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $10 +$50 +500%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 12 $500 +$195 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 6PM ET Jan 24 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 4PM ET Jan 24 $20 +$18 +92%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-24? Jan 24 $300 −$300 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-01-23? Jan 23 $400 +$71 +18%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-01-21? Jan 21 $500 +$61 +12%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-01-24? Jan 18 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-01-18? Jan 18 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-01-17? Jan 17 $100 +$42 +42%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-01-17? Jan 17 $40 +$13 +32%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-17? Jan 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-18? Jan 17 $93 −$93 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-01-14? Jan 14 $500 +$46 +9%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-01-07? Jan 07 $40 −$40 -100%
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-01-07? Jan 07 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-04? Jan 04 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-01-04? Jan 04 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-01-03? Jan 04 $100 +$96 +96%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-12-27? Dec 27 $400 +$245 +61%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-12-27? Dec 27 $300 +$34 +11%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winner Dec 22 $20 +$10 +52%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs PARIVISION - Game 1 Winner Dec 21 $5 +$3 +53%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-12-20? Dec 20 $492 +$96 +20%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs OG - Game 2 Winner Dec 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Universitatea Craiova CS win on 2025-12-18? Dec 18 $18 −$11 -61%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2025-12-18? Dec 18 $38 −$28 -75%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-12-14? Dec 14 $30 +$11 +37%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2025-12-14? Dec 14 $20 +$21 +104%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-12-14? Dec 14 $400 −$290 -72%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2025-12-14? Dec 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-12-13? Dec 13 $400 +$32 +8%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2025-12-07? Dec 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 06 $100 −$86 -86%
Will Manchester City win on 2025-12-06? Dec 05 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Aston Villa win on 2025-11-30? Nov 30 $80 +$30 +38%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-11-30? Nov 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Bayer Leverkusen vs. Borussia Dortmund: Both Teams to Score Nov 29 $20 −$8 -39%
Will Bayern München win on 2025-11-29? Nov 29 $200 +$13 +7%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Yakult Brothers (BO1) Nov 29 $20 +$19 +96%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs OG (BO1) Nov 28 $24 +$6 +26%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2025-11-27? Nov 27 $20 $0 +2%
Will FK Crvena zvezda vs. FCSB end in a draw? Nov 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2025-11-27? Nov 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs MOUZ (BO5) Nov 23 $40 +$21 +54%
Leeds United vs. Aston Villa: Both Teams to Score Nov 23 $15 +$14 +92%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-22? Nov 22 $15 +$15 +100%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-22? Nov 22 $15 +$7 +49%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 22? Nov 18 $300 +$122 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 1h
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 1h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 1h
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL No 95¢ $500 1h
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 95¢ $501 1h
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-04-12? SELL Yes 98¢ $60 71d
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-04-12? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 71d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? SELL Yes 98¢ $695 71d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? BUY Yes 70¢ $500 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 6PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $10 148d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 6PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $10 148d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 6PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $20 148d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 4PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $38 148d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 4PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $20 149d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-24? BUY Yes 58¢ $300 149d
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-01-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $471 149d
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-01-23? BUY Yes 85¢ $400 150d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-01-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $561 151d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-01-24? BUY Yes 90¢ $500 154d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-01-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $500 154d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-01-18? BUY Yes 60¢ $40 155d
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-01-17? SELL Yes 97¢ $142 156d
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-01-17? SELL Yes 91¢ $53 156d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-17? BUY Yes 50¢ $40 156d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-18? BUY Yes 62¢ $8 156d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $32 156d
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-01-17? BUY Yes 69¢ $40 156d
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-01-17? BUY Yes 68¢ $100 156d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-18? BUY Yes 62¢ $2 156d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-18? BUY Yes 62¢ $24 156d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $79.14 · official $79.14 (match) · 170 history records