Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:06:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf695…0045 weather 16 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (72 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$16 (+4%) realized +$66 · open −$50
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%1W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day72.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$125now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.8% -8.8% 100% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 1 +0.8% -8.8% 100% 0% -8.8%
≤90d 1 +0.8% -8.8% 100% 0% -8.8%
all 1 +0.8% -8.8% 100% 0% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover72.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.8% 0% -8.8%
10% ← realistic here -17.5% 0% -17.5%
15% -25.5% 0% -25.5%
20% -32.8% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$0 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$125
Realized+$66
Unrealized−$50
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses1 / 0
Open positions15
Markets (closed)1 / 16
History coverage1d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day72.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 1 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 17? Yes 14¢ 26¢ $14 $26 +$12 (+86%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on June 17? Yes 0¢ 5¢ $1 $24 +$23 (+2200%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 17? Yes 31¢ 23¢ $23 $17 −$6 (-25%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 17? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $18 $15 −$3 (-18%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 17? Yes 10¢ 5¢ $29 $14 −$15 (-52%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 17? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $9 $12 +$3 (+28%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on June 17? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $14 $5 −$9 (-64%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 17? Yes 17¢ 25¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+47%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 17? No 83¢ 24¢ $16 $5 −$11 (-70%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on June 17? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 17? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$5 (-92%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 17? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-97%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 17? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-96%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 17? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-97%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 17? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 16? Jun 17 $29 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju SELL No 21¢ $23 1m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju SELL No 20¢ $6 1m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju SELL No 25¢ $17 1m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY Yes 2¢ $8 35m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes 2¢ $1 45m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes 2¢ $0 49m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes 2¢ $1 49m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes 2¢ $0 49m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes 2¢ $1 49m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 17? BUY Yes 4¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju SELL No 88¢ $31 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju SELL Yes 12¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 17? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 17? BUY Yes 7¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes 25¢ $21 2h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY No 81¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY No 81¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY No 81¢ $82 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 17? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 17? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 17? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 17? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 17? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY No 88¢ $111 3h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 17? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 17? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $124.90 · official $124.30 (match) · 73 history records