Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T03:58:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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F6 0xf695…debf crypto 1891 markets active 0h ago coverage 66d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 66d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$328 (-6%) realized −$328 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%1036W / 843L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day32.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$5
14 days+$21
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$166
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 266 -3.3% -12.6% 54% 54% -10.6%
≤30d 444 -1.0% -10.4% 53% 53% -8.4%
≤90d 1879 -4.3% -13.4% 55% 55% -12.5%
all 1879 -4.3% -13.4% 55% 55% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.4% 55% -12.5%
10% ← realistic here -21.7% 52% -20.8%
15% -29.3% 47% -28.5%
20% -36.2% 40% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$328
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses1036 / 843
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1879 / 1891
History coverage66d ⚠
Avg bet$3
Trades / day32.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1879 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Up 49¢ 81¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+66%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Down 51¢ 18¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-64%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 498 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +93%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +62%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +65%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +83%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +52%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +83%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +65%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +73%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +73%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +73%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +97%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +65%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +101%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +110%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +86%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +52%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +83%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 7m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 8m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 8m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 12m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 12m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 17m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 18m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 22m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 22m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 23m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 27m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 28m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 42m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 43m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 52m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 57m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.03 · official $2.10 (match) · 3500 history records