Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:31:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
F6 0xf690…7989 sports 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 58d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$97 (-7%) realized −$97 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%4W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$210per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$99
30 days−$51
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% −$153
world 19% +$52
other 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-20.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -16.3% -24.3% 50% 50% -36.4%
≤90d 6 -12.2% -20.5% 67% 67% -15.9%
all 6 -12.2% -20.5% 67% 67% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.5% 67% -15.9%
10% -28.1% 33% -24.0%
15% -35.1% 17% -31.3%
20% -41.4% 17% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 59% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$172 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$97
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses4 / 2
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage58d
Avg bet$210
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ebola pandemic in 2026? No 93¢ 92¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 07 $100 −$99 -99%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $72 +$48 +67%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 09 $250 −$246 -98%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 08 $414 +$55 +13%
Magic vs. Pistons May 05 $322 +$88 +27%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $276 +$52 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ebola pandemic in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $33 1h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $100 9d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 59¢ $72 21d
Pistons vs. Cavaliers BUY Pistons 39¢ $250 38d
Lakers vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 88¢ $414 40d
Magic vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 78¢ $322 48d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $276 57d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.82 · official $32.82 (match) · 11 history records