Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:26:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf68c…c79c crypto 100 markets active 2h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate90%89W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$2
14 days−$74
30 days−$53
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% +$65
sports 7% −$28
world 3% +$4
other 2% −$58
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +13.2% +2.4% 100% 100% +2.4%
≤30d 38 -9.7% -18.3% 84% 8% -11.0%
≤90d 87 -3.8% -13.0% 89% 3% -9.8%
all 99 -3.2% -12.4% 90% 3% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 3% -9.7%
10% -20.8% 0% -18.3%
15% -28.5% 0% -26.2%
20% -35.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$11 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses89 / 10
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)99 / 100
History coverage106d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 99 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 17 $18 +$2 +13%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 16 $16 −$16 -99%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 15 $17 +$3 +18%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $29 −$28 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$29 -57%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 14 $27 +$3 +10%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 14 $34 +$1 +3%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $26 −$16 -63%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $28 $0 -0%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $133 +$1 +1%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 14 $44 +$6 +14%
Spread: Qatar (-1.5) Jun 13 $83 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $125 +$1 +1%
Spread: Czechia (-2.5) Jun 12 $97 +$3 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $120 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $118 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 09 $117 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $112 +$5 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $109 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? Jun 07 $107 +$3 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $105 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $103 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $101 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? Jun 01 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $100 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $98 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 30? May 30 $97 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 29? May 29 $97 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 28? May 28 $96 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 27? May 27 $94 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 26? May 26 $92 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 26? May 26 $93 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 26? May 26 $92 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 25? May 25 $92 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 25? May 25 $90 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 25? May 24 $91 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 24? May 23 $91 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 22? May 22 $89 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 21? May 21 $86 +$4 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 21? May 21 $85 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 20? May 20 $85 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 18? May 18 $84 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 18? May 18 $83 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 17? May 17 $84 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 16? May 16 $82 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 15 $81 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 12? May 12 $81 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? May 12 $80 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $35 1h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY Croatia 88¢ $18 6d
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Algeria 79¢ $16 7d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $16 7d
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY Egypt 84¢ $17 7d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 79¢ $22 7d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $13 8d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $51 8d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 32¢ $10 8d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $28 8d
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 97¢ $34 9d
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Japan 91¢ $27 9d
Spread: Germany (-5.5) BUY Curaçao 82¢ $16 9d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 85¢ $26 9d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $28 9d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 99¢ $133 9d
Spread: Qatar (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 99¢ $83 9d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Morocco 87¢ $44 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $126 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $125 10d
Spread: Czechia (-2.5) BUY Korea Republic 97¢ $97 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? SELL Yes 100¢ $123 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 98¢ $120 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? SELL Yes 100¢ $120 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 98¢ $118 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? SELL Yes 100¢ $119 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 98¢ $117 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? SELL No 100¢ $117 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? BUY No 95¢ $112 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? SELL No 100¢ $111 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.20 · official $34.20 (match) · 221 history records