Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:05:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

F6 0xf68a…5b13 other 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$135 (+25%) realized +$135 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +41% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +23% what you keep after slip

Net edge+23%after slip

Net WR86%break-even

Win rate86%6W / 1L

Drawdown8%max

Avg bet$78per market

Trades / day7.4pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +86%

net ROI/market (all)+28.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	7	+41.4%	+28.0%	86%	86%	+24.3%
≤30d	7	+41.4%	+28.0%	86%	86%	+24.3%
≤90d	7	+41.4%	+28.0%	86%	86%	+24.3%
all	7	+41.4%	+28.0%	86%	86%	+24.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover7.4 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+28.0%	86%	+24.3%
10%	+15.7%	86%	+12.4%
15%	+4.5%	71%	+1.5%
20%	-5.7%	57%	-8.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 35% · top 2 60% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +37% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +41% · $-wt +37% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$37 vs −$17 · ×2.15 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×12.88 per $1 lost it wins $12.88

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$135

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)86%

Wins / losses6 / 1

Open positions0

Markets (closed)7 / 7

History coverage2d

Avg bet$78

Trades / day7.4

Drawdown8%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 7 Trades

no open positions

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$122	+$77	+63%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$101	+$57	+56%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$79	+$22	+27%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$51	+$28	+55%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$114	−$17	-15%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$50	+$19	+38%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$30	+$20	+66%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	100¢	$199	1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	60¢	$122	5h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	97¢	$158	5h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	61¢	$101	10h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	100¢	$101	27h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	77¢	$79	28h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	100¢	$79	29h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	63¢	$51	31h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	11¢	$6	32h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	80¢	$46	32h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	73¢	$91	33h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	53¢	$68	40h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	100¢	$68	45h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	71¢	$50	2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	100¢	$50	2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	59¢	$30	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 16 history records