Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T23:56:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf68a…0367 weather 140 markets active 0h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$361 (-16%) realized −$361 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -58% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -65% what you keep after slip
Net edge-65%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate19%27W / 113L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$64
7 days−$64
14 days−$64
30 days−$64
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 64% −$68
weather 36% −$350
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-61.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -8.9% -17.6% 62% 43% -13.8%
≤30d 21 -8.9% -17.6% 62% 43% -13.8%
≤90d 140 -57.9% -61.9% 19% 14% -26.7%
all 140 -57.9% -61.9% 19% 14% -26.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -61.9% 14% -26.7%
10% -65.5% 11% -33.7%
15% -68.9% 8% -40.1%
20% -71.9% 7% -46.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -58% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -61% → late -54% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$7 · ×2.02 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$361
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses27 / 113
Open positions0
Markets (closed)140 / 140
History coverage70d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 140 Trades
no open positions (62 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 28 $103 +$59 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 28 $154 +$81 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 28 $145 +$17 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 28 $140 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 28 $206 −$206 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 28 $52 +$15 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 28 $159 +$11 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 28 $10 +$8 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 28 $171 −$19 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 28 $61 +$18 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 28 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 28 $10 +$7 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 28 $10 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 28 $31 +$16 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 28 $10 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 28 $15 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 28 $21 −$10 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 28 $9 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 28 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET May 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET May 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET May 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET May 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET May 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET May 01 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET May 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET May 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET May 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET May 01 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET May 01 $16 +$6 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET May 01 $15 +$3 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on April 27? Apr 28 $20 +$2 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on April 27 Apr 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on April 27? Apr 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 2°C on April 27? Apr 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Ap Apr 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on April 27 Apr 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 27? Apr 27 $2 +$6 +298%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 6°C on April 27? Apr 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 23°C on April 27? Apr 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on April 27? Apr 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 7°C on April 27? Apr 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on April 27? Apr 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on April 27? Apr 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on Ap Apr 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on April 27? Apr 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on April 27? Apr 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $103 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $154 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $141 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $4 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $140 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $206 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $66 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $52 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $19 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $35 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $4 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $24 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $4 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $2 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $4 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $34 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $7 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $28 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $154 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $150 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $10 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $10 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $11 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $51 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 774 history records