Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:25:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
F6 0xf686…8c0b sports 12 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$21 (+1%) realized +$18 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate67%6W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$145per market
Trades / day14.5pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$103now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$259
crypto 6% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-19.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -10.9% -19.4% 67% 44% -31.6%
≤30d 9 -10.9% -19.4% 67% 44% -31.6%
≤90d 9 -10.9% -19.4% 67% 44% -31.6%
all 9 -10.9% -19.4% 67% 44% -31.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.4% 44% -31.6%
10% -27.1% 22% -38.1%
15% -34.2% 0% -44.1%
20% -40.6% 0% -49.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 65% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$118 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$103
Realized+$18
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses6 / 3
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 12
History coverage2d
Avg bet$145
Trades / day14.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? No 58¢ 60¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 29 $110 −$7 -7%
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Jun 29 $592 −$342 -58%
Germany vs. Paraguay: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout? Jun 29 $5 −$5 -98%
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 29 $87 +$12 +14%
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 29 $162 +$13 +8%
Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 29 $45 +$4 +10%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 29 $201 +$33 +16%
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance Jun 28 $91 +$29 +32%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $10 +$3 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 10.5 Total Corners AND Netherlands vs. Mo BUY 39¢ $316 28m
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 73¢ $102 46m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 58¢ $51 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout? BUY No 38¢ $5 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 11.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $95 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $175 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 75¢ $5 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 11.5 Total Corners SELL Over 97¢ $5 2h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 92¢ $162 2h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 87¢ $87 2h
Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $49 2h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 65¢ $35 2h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) SELL Paraguay 95¢ $234 3h
Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 91¢ $45 3h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Paraguay 81¢ $201 3h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance SELL Germany 86¢ $246 3h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 77¢ $110 3h
Brazil to score first vs. Japan? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? AN BUY 41¢ $20 11h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 87¢ $502 16h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 58¢ $101 16h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 78¢ $10 35h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance BUY Canada 75¢ $91 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $102.59 · official $413.40 · 24 history records