Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T09:21:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf685…1ddc world 271 markets active 1h ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$268 (+4%) realized +$267 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate57%147W / 112L
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day13.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$137now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$41
7 days+$18
14 days+$29
30 days+$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% +$14
other 25% +$76
crypto 9% +$198
politics 8% +$77
tech 7% −$45
finance 3% −$23
sports 2% −$14
economics 1% +$5
culture 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -33.2% -39.5% 46% 31% -6.0%
≤30d 41 -24.1% -31.3% 51% 37% -4.0%
≤90d 124 +1.5% -8.2% 59% 35% -5.8%
all 259 +0.4% -9.1% 57% 31% -5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 31% -5.8%
10% -17.8% 19% -14.8%
15% -25.8% 14% -23.0%
20% -33.1% 10% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$7 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$137
Realized+$267
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses147 / 112
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions12
Markets (closed)259 / 271
History coverage149d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day13.4
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 259 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $41 $42 +$1 (+3%)
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? No 89¢ 92¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+3%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 8¢ 10¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+13%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $10 $9 −$0 (-4%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 14¢ 10¢ $12 $9 −$3 (-25%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-12%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 95¢ 99¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+4%)
Ink FDV above $1B one day after launch? No 59¢ 81¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+38%)
Will MicroStrategy be margin called in 2026? No 90¢ 93¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 90¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81 Yes 40¢ 28¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 16 $3 +$1 +48%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $12 +$9 +74%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 15 $10 +$11 +119%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 15 $62 +$11 +18%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Google Gemini score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -99%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 15 $13 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Google Gemini score at least 45% on the FrontierMath Benchmark? Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Google Gemini score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Benchmark? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Google Gemini score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark? Jun 15 $13 −$12 -93%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 15 $3 +$2 +59%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 15 $30 +$13 +44%
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 10 $7 −$5 -80%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 10 $7 −$7 -100%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 10 $0 $0 -100%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 10 $6 $0 +2%
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1? Jun 10 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 5, 2026? Jun 10 $9 +$1 +7%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 10 $146 +$70 +48%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June? Jun 10 $10 +$9 +86%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 10 $29 +$1 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Jun 08 $9 +$6 +67%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $38 −$3 -7%
Nothing Ever Happens: May Jun 03 $29 +$9 +30%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $34 +$5 +13%
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 202 Jun 01 $12 −$1 -7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $17 +$3 +17%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $44 +$16 +36%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 31 $25 +$8 +31%
Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website? May 29 $6 −$6 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will 20-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17? May 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1500? May 21 $10 $0 +4%
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-Ma May 21 $13 +$2 +14%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? May 20 $3 −$1 -24%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 12-18? May 18 $3 $0 +1%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 13 $3 $0 +12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 10 $77 −$8 -10%
Will Trump or Melania say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" at the Military Mother May 10 $3 $0 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 10 $10 +$1 +5%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SX? May 06 $44 +$26 +60%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 06 $41 +$9 +22%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? May 06 $13 −$7 -52%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026? May 06 $3 $0 +12%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? May 06 $3 +$4 +139%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 17¢ $9 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 1h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 31¢ $4 2h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 11h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 11h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 14h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 14h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 14h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 14h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 14h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 21¢ $3 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 14¢ $3 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 14¢ $3 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 14¢ $1 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 14¢ $3 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 14¢ $2 25h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 86¢ $16 25h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL No 99¢ $21 25h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $73 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $137.33 · official $137.33 (match) · 2228 history records