Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T09:17:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
F6 0xf685…5ec9 crypto 975 markets active 1h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$289 (-0%) realized −$302 · open +$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate75%725W / 244L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day20.7pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$1,013now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days+$314
14 days+$476
30 days+$476
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% −$800
weather 18% +$320
other 3% +$224
sports 1% −$179
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 +1.6% -8.1% 96% 8% -6.6%
≤30d 117 -2.0% -11.3% 91% 14% -7.2%
≤90d 408 -18.1% -25.9% 64% 12% -12.3%
all 969 -3.9% -13.1% 75% 17% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.1% 17% -10.1%
10% ← realistic here -21.4% 10% -18.7%
15% -29.0% 6% -26.6%
20% -35.9% 4% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$12 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$1,013
Realized−$302
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses725 / 244
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions6
Markets (closed)969 / 975
History coverage114d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day20.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 969 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $200 $204 +$4 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 16? No 98¢ 100¢ $200 $204 +$4 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 16? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $200 $202 +$2 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 16? No 99¢ 100¢ $200 $202 +$2 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 16? No 99¢ 100¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 16? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $200 +$5 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $401 +$15 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $300 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $200 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $80 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $200 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $300 +$9 +3%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $601 +$12 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 14? Jun 14 $300 +$5 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $601 +$12 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $90 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $200 +$7 +3%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $100 +$10 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $100 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $90 +$63 +70%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $200 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $501 +$18 +4%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $200 +$1 +1%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $100 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $200 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $200 +$5 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $172 +$10 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $150 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $301 +$15 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $201 +$15 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $200 +$8 +4%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $100 +$9 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $200 +$5 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $200 +$6 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $300 +$7 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $200 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $289 +$12 +4%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $201 +$10 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $201 +$12 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C or below on June 10? Jun 10 $201 +$18 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $201 +$29 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $200 +$5 +2%
Will Venezuela win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $200 +$10 +5%
Will Chile win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $101 +$23 +22%
Will Armenia vs. Moldova end in a draw? Jun 09 $110 +$11 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 9? Jun 09 $200 +$5 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $160 +$1 +1%
Will China PR vs. Thailand end in a draw? Jun 09 $10 +$2 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 9? Jun 09 $300 +$6 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 9? Jun 09 $302 +$43 +14%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $296 +$4 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $100 57m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $200 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 98¢ $200 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $200 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $100 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $100 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 16? BUY Yes 98¢ $100 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 15? BUY Yes 98¢ $100 16h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 15? BUY Yes 97¢ $100 16h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 15? BUY Yes 99¢ $100 18h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 15? BUY Yes 96¢ $100 19h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 15? BUY Yes 95¢ $200 19h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $200 19h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $100 20h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 15? SELL Yes 100¢ $204 21h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $82 22h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 15? SELL Yes 100¢ $101 22h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $102 22h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $203 22h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 15? SELL Yes 100¢ $309 22h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 95¢ $100 25h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $80 26h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 15? BUY Yes 98¢ $200 26h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $200 27h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 98¢ $100 27h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $100 27h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 98¢ $200 27h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 84¢ $100 32h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 14? SELL Yes 100¢ $306 40h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? BUY Yes 98¢ $200 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,013.38 · official $1,013.38 (match) · 2948 history records