Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:35:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5

score

F6 0xf683…fd42 crypto 15 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover

Total PnL +$13 (+4%) realized +$55 · open −$43

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip

Net edge-9%after slip

Net WR60%break-even

Win rate90%9W / 1L

Drawdown8%max

Avg bet$22per market

Trades / day33.0pace

Kalshi-fit93%portable

Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +60%

net ROI/market (all)+7.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	10	+18.4%	+7.1%	90%	60%	+9.7%
≤30d	10	+18.4%	+7.1%	90%	60%	+9.7%
≤90d	10	+18.4%	+7.1%	90%	60%	+9.7%
all	10	+18.4%	+7.1%	90%	60%	+9.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover33.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+7.1%	60%	+9.7%
10% ← realistic here	-3.1%	30%	-0.8%
15%	-12.5%	30%	-10.4%
20%	-21.1%	10%	-19.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 43% · top 2 68% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

33% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +18% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$7 vs −$5 · ×1.45 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×13.08 per $1 lost it wins $13.08

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$32

Realized+$55

Unrealized−$43

Win rate (resolved)90%

Wins / losses9 / 1

Open positions5

Markets (closed)10 / 15

History coverage1d

Avg bet$22

Trades / day33.0

Drawdown8%

Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 10 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	78¢	86¢	$25	$28	+$3 (+11%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Up	56¢	50¢	$5	$5	−$0 (-10%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Up	68¢	0¢	$30	$0	−$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Up	41¢	0¢	$10	$0	−$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	46¢	0¢	$5	$0	−$5 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Jun 16	$66	+$10	+15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Jun 16	$46	+$26	+56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Jun 16	$31	+$15	+48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Jun 16	$37	+$4	+12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Jun 16	$5	+$1	+16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Jun 16	$30	−$5	-15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Jun 16	$20	+$1	+7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Jun 16	$5	+$2	+38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Jun 16	$5	$0	+3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Jun 16	$15	+$1	+4%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	BUY Up	56¢	$5	0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	BUY Up	95¢	$10	1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	BUY Up	90¢	$5	1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	BUY Up	84¢	$25	3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	BUY Up	84¢	$25	3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	BUY Down	72¢	$10	13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	BUY Down	54¢	$10	13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	BUY Down	63¢	$26	14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	BUY Down	82¢	$10	17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	BUY Down	59¢	$10	17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	BUY Down	61¢	$10	19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	BUY Up	41¢	$10	25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	BUY Up	86¢	$3	31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	BUY Up	90¢	$3	31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	BUY Up	90¢	$3	31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	BUY Up	90¢	$25	32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	BUY Up	82¢	$3	34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	BUY Up	85¢	$5	39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	BUY Down	97¢	$25	46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	BUY Up	16¢	$5	48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	BUY Up	72¢	$25	53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	BUY Up	54¢	$5	53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	BUY Up	99¢	$5	55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	BUY Up	96¢	$5	55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	BUY Up	95¢	$5	56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	BUY Up	85¢	$5	56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	BUY Up	46¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	BUY Up	71¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	BUY Down	97¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	BUY Up	98¢	$5	1h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.27 · official $31.95 (match) · 43 history records