Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T06:48:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
F6 0xf67b…18e9 finance 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$55 (+18%) realized +$62 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip
Net edge+13%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%3W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$98now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 9d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 36% −$7
crypto 25% +$32
tech 21% +$11
world 19% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +25.2% +13.3% 100% 100% +14.7%
≤30d 3 +25.2% +13.3% 100% 100% +14.7%
≤90d 3 +25.2% +13.3% 100% 100% +14.7%
all 3 +25.2% +13.3% 100% 100% +14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +13.3% 100% +14.7%
10% +2.5% 33% +3.7%
15% -7.4% 33% -6.3%
20% -16.5% 0% -15.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 85% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt +27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$98
Realized+$62
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses3 / 0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)3 / 4
History coverage9d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Yes 54¢ 51¢ $105 $98 −$7 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Jun 26 $74 +$32 +44%
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 21 $63 +$11 +18%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $55 +$8 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 54¢ $107 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL No 97¢ $107 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY No 66¢ $74 4d
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $75 4d
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $63 5d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $63 5d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $55 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98.34 · official $90.91 · 7 history records