Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:11:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf676…9a00 sports 265 markets active 4h ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$827 (-9%) realized −$827 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate61%156W / 101L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day7.3pace
Fees−$82est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$146
7 days−$197
14 days−$197
30 days−$705
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$776
other 1% −$50
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -15.0% -23.1% 42% 37% -32.1%
≤30d 163 -12.5% -20.8% 60% 54% -20.9%
≤90d 257 -10.1% -18.7% 61% 56% -18.2%
all 257 -10.1% -18.7% 61% 56% -18.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.7% 56% -18.2%
10% -26.4% 49% -26.0%
15% -33.5% 39% -33.2%
20% -40.1% 20% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$29 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$827
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses156 / 101
Est. fees paid−$82
Open positions0
Markets (closed)257 / 265
History coverage38d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 257 Trades
no open positions (83 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Wi Jun 20 $20 +$51 +251%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $30 +$17 +57%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 $0 +0%
Perugia: Remy Bertola vs Francesco Maestrelli Jun 19 $25 −$5 -20%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $50 −$50 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $30 −$30 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $41 −$40 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $41 −$40 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $51 +$31 +62%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $101 −$50 -49%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 +$34 +67%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 +$39 +76%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $30 +$24 +79%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $50 −$3 -5%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $50 +$24 +48%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $50 −$50 -99%
Tyler: Andres Martin vs Blake Ellis Jun 03 $25 +$17 +67%
Tyler: Adam Walton vs Tung-Lin Wu Jun 03 $25 +$9 +36%
Tyler: Edas Butvilas vs Trevor Svajda Jun 03 $20 +$14 +67%
Birmingham: Zhizhen Zhang vs Otto Virtanen Jun 03 $20 +$10 +50%
Birmingham: James McCabe vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 03 $30 +$14 +46%
Birmingham: Celine Naef vs Maddison Inglis Jun 03 $30 +$11 +38%
Birmingham: Coleman Wong vs Oliver Tarvet Jun 02 $30 +$20 +67%
Centurion 2: Sasikumar Mukund vs Giles Hussey Jun 02 $20 +$6 +31%
Centurion 2: Dominik Palan vs Alec Beckley Jun 02 $20 +$13 +65%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $30 +$11 +36%
Centurion 2: Robert Strombachs vs Millen Hurrion Jun 02 $20 +$13 +62%
Birmingham: Tristan Schoolkate vs Arthur Fery Jun 02 $20 +$13 +62%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk Jun 02 $20 +$16 +79%
Heilbronn: Mika Petkovic vs Alejandro Moro Canas Jun 02 $30 +$17 +55%
Perugia: Henrique Rocha vs Enrico Dalla Valle Jun 02 $30 +$13 +42%
Birmingham: James Duckworth vs Billy Harris Jun 02 $30 −$7 -22%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 02 $20 −$20 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 02 $30 −$30 -99%
Birmingham: Elias Ymer vs Christopher O'Connell Jun 02 $20 −$20 -99%
Centurion 2: Tuncay Duran vs Stefano Napolitano Jun 02 $20 −$20 -99%
Birmingham: Clement Chidekh vs Filippo Romano Jun 02 $25 −$25 -99%
Centurion 2: Khololwam Montsi vs Calvin Hemery Jun 02 $40 −$40 -99%
Centurion 2: Akira Santillan vs Alexander Donski Jun 02 $30 −$30 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 02 $41 +$44 +107%
Perugia: Gianluca Cadenasso vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Jun 02 $20 +$14 +70%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka Jun 01 $50 +$11 +21%
Heilbronn: Max Houkes vs Emilio Nava Jun 01 $30 +$8 +27%
Prostejov: Alexander Shevchenko vs Raul Brancaccio Jun 01 $30 +$11 +36%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini Jun 01 $40 +$27 +67%
Heilbronn: Frederico Ferreira Silva vs Pedro Martinez Jun 01 $30 +$16 +52%
Foggia: Elizara Yaneva vs Lisa Pigato Jun 01 $20 +$13 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? AN BUY 25¢ $5 4h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? AN BUY 67¢ $30 4h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 AND Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 AN BUY 35¢ $20 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY 37¢ $20 5h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 AND Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 BUY 68¢ $20 5h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 48¢ $6 10h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 48¢ $15 10h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Wi BUY 28¢ $20 17h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 8.5 Total Corners AND United States vs. Australi BUY 33¢ $31 17h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY 65¢ $30 17h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY 54¢ $20 17h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 19h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 63¢ $30 19h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $50 19h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 55¢ $30 46h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 52¢ $41 46h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $41 46h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $51 46h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 61¢ $51 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $51 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $51 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 45¢ $48 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $51 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $51 3d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $51 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $51 3d
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) SELL New Zealand 73¢ $48 4d
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY New Zealand 76¢ $50 5d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $30 5d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Egypt 67¢ $50 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $95.00 · 460 history records