Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T14:19:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
F6 0xf674…c9c4 crypto 314 markets active 3h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$12 (+3%) realized +$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate66%206W / 107L
Drawdown89%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$1
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$8
sports 6% +$9
other 2% +$3
world 0% −$2
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 277 -1.4% -10.7% 67% 55% -8.6%
≤30d 311 -0.6% -10.1% 66% 54% -7.4%
≤90d 311 -0.6% -10.1% 66% 54% -7.4%
all 313 -1.2% -10.6% 66% 54% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 54% -7.8%
10% -19.2% 39% -16.6%
15% -27.0% 26% -24.7%
20% -34.2% 17% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses206 / 107
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)313 / 314
History coverage92d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 313 Trades
no open positions (82 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$1 -52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 21 $3 $0 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 21 $1 +$1 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 21 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 21 $2 $0 +22%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 21 $2 $0 +3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 +15%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 21 $1 +$1 +110%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 21 $3 $0 +7%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 21 $2 $0 +13%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $1 −$1 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 21 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$1 -43%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$2 -53%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 21 $4 +$1 +20%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 21 $1 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 21 $2 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -49%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +38%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -92%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +26%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 20 $2 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +26%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 20 $2 $0 +28%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 20 $3 +$1 +27%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$1 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +26%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +20%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -58%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +33%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$2 -58%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 18¢ $0 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 58¢ $1 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $1 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $1 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $2 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $2 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $0 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $1 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $1 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 5h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $1 5h
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $2 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $1 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 6h
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 7h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 3¢ $1 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $2 8h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 31¢ $1 8h
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 705 history records