Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T00:58:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F6 0xf671…3dd7 sports 990 markets active 2h ago coverage 343d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Covers last 342d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,824 (+1%) realized +$1,829 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate55%540W / 445L
Whale WR65%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$137per market
Trades / day7.6pace
Fees−$503est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$599now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$35
7 days+$173
14 days−$283
30 days+$60
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% +$2,883
other 14% −$1,367
world 0% +$162
crypto 0% −$132
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +8.6% -1.8% 57% 53% -4.9%
≤30d 120 +1.3% -8.3% 51% 50% -9.2%
≤90d 396 -0.4% -9.9% 53% 52% -5.6%
all 985 +1.5% -8.1% 55% 53% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 53% -8.5%
10% -16.9% 45% -17.2%
15% -25.0% 38% -25.2%
20% -32.3% 30% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 65% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$84 vs −$99 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

343d coverage
Net worth$599
Realized+$1,829
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses540 / 445
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Est. fees paid−$503
Open positions2
Markets (closed)985 / 990
History coverage343d ⚠
Avg bet$137
Trades / day7.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 985 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbert Ugo Humbert 71¢ 70¢ $500 $497 −$4 (-1%)
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $103 $102 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $372 +$133 +36%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Draper vs Ugo Humbert Jun 26 $76 −$76 -100%
Mallorca Championships: Nuno Borges vs Ethan Quinn Jun 26 $270 +$15 +6%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel Jun 26 $74 −$38 -51%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 25 $66 +$34 +52%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $166 −$165 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Ugo Humbert vs Quentin Halys Jun 25 $11 +$4 +41%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $81 +$103 +127%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $88 −$86 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $239 +$76 +32%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $51 +$49 +96%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $104 −$102 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $66 −$66 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $162 −$162 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $30 +$70 +233%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $67 +$36 +55%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $82 +$118 +144%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 22 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 22 $98 −$98 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 22 $62 −$62 -100%
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul Jun 22 $87 −$87 -100%
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 22 $152 −$152 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $167 +$82 +49%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Guy Den Ouden vs Yi Zhou Jun 22 $56 +$44 +79%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Laslo Djere vs Max Houkes Jun 22 $76 +$24 +32%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $46 +$104 +226%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $64 +$60 +93%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $415 +$218 +52%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5) Jun 21 $98 +$152 +156%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $123 +$177 +144%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Jun 20 $59 +$41 +70%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $186 +$144 +78%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $396 +$254 +64%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $564 −$20 -4%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $155 +$345 +223%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Jun 20 $137 +$112 +82%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $403 +$121 +30%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon Jun 19 $295 +$64 +22%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $134 +$114 +85%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $157 −$157 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $92 −$92 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $153 −$153 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $45 −$45 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 18 $19 −$19 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $31 −$31 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $75 −$75 -100%
Game Handicap: AL (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) Jun 18 $45 −$45 -100%
Game Handicap: TES (-2.5) vs LGD Gaming (+2.5) Jun 18 $41 −$41 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $105 1h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? AND Will Croatia win on 2026-0 BUY 8¢ $50 3h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 71¢ $500 16h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 73¢ $372 30h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Draper vs Ugo Humbert BUY Jack Draper 63¢ $76 32h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel SELL Zizou Bergs 31¢ $36 35h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel BUY Zizou Bergs 62¢ $5 35h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel BUY Zizou Bergs 62¢ $10 35h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel BUY Zizou Bergs 62¢ $19 35h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel BUY Zizou Bergs 62¢ $31 35h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel BUY Zizou Bergs 62¢ $7 35h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel BUY Zizou Bergs 62¢ $3 35h
Mallorca Championships: Nuno Borges vs Ethan Quinn SELL Nuno Borges 17¢ $16 35h
Mallorca Championships: Nuno Borges vs Ethan Quinn BUY Ethan Quinn 76¢ $201 35h
Mallorca Championships: Nuno Borges vs Ethan Quinn SELL Nuno Borges 24¢ $6 35h
Mallorca Championships: Nuno Borges vs Ethan Quinn BUY Nuno Borges 57¢ $8 36h
Mallorca Championships: Nuno Borges vs Ethan Quinn BUY Nuno Borges 57¢ $6 36h
Mallorca Championships: Nuno Borges vs Ethan Quinn BUY Nuno Borges 57¢ $1 36h
Mallorca Championships: Nuno Borges vs Ethan Quinn BUY Nuno Borges 57¢ $53 36h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25 BUY 25¢ $35 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 16¢ $16 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 31¢ $32 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 59¢ $118 2d
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 66¢ $66 2d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Ugo Humbert vs Quentin Halys BUY Ugo Humbert 71¢ $4 2d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Ugo Humbert vs Quentin Halys BUY Ugo Humbert 71¢ $6 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 44¢ $31 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 40¢ $37 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 43¢ $51 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $51 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $598.95 · official $598.95 (match) · 3423 history records