Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:28:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf670…bf42 world 81 markets active 2h ago coverage 182d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$154 (+2%) realized +$150 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate32%26W / 54L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$113per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 34% +$150
crypto 22% −$1
world 18% +$4
politics 16% +$2
sports 6% −$1
economics 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.9% -8.7% 43% 0% -8.3%
≤30d 21 +0.2% -9.3% 38% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 67 -0.5% -10.0% 31% 0% -9.5%
all 80 -0.3% -9.8% 32% 1% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 1% -8.0%
10% -18.4% 1% -16.8%
15% -26.3% 0% -24.9%
20% -33.5% 0% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 92% · top 2 94% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$0 · ×13.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×13.58 per $1 lost it wins $13.58
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

182d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized+$150
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses26 / 54
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)80 / 81
History coverage182d
Avg bet$113
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 80 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 70¢ 76¢ $45 $48 +$4 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 21 $45 $0 -0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $44 +$1 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $127 +$3 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $44 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 19 $43 +$1 +3%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $5 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 17 $44 −$1 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $20 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $131 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $134 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $17 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $33 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $125 $0 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $46 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $42 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 03 $43 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 02 $126 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $87 −$2 -2%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 28 $40 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $92 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 24 $42 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 21 $41 +$1 +3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 19 $6 $0 +4%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 18 $173 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 18 $100 $0 -0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $83 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 14 $7 −$2 -30%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 14 $44 $0 +0%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 14 $43 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $164 −$1 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $97 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $14 $0 -2%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $96 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $43 +$1 +1%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 22 $135 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $32 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $65 +$2 +3%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 19 $50 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $89 −$1 -2%
Will João Fonseca be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Apr 17 $91 $0 +0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 16 $47 $0 -0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 16 $86 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 15 $47 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 15 $10 $0 -2%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $41 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $52 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $33 $0 +0%
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 11 $43 $0 +0%
Will San Jose Earthquakes win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 10 $43 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $45 2h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 94¢ $44 27h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 95¢ $45 28h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $45 29h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $44 39h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 44¢ $4 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 44¢ $40 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 44¢ $44 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $43 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $44 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 69¢ $44 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 67¢ $40 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 67¢ $3 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $5 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $8 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $35 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $44 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 42¢ $2 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $36 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $3 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $3 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 51¢ $42 9d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $6 14d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $14 14d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $20 15d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $42 15d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $15 15d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $27 15d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $42 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.32 · official $48.32 (match) · 327 history records