Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:59:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
F6 0xf66f…54bc weather 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care weather specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$52 (+10%) realized +$52 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate100%5W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$106per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-2.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +7.7% -2.6% 100% 40% -1.0%
≤30d 5 +7.7% -2.6% 100% 40% -1.0%
≤90d 5 +7.7% -2.6% 100% 40% -1.0%
all 5 +7.7% -2.6% 100% 40% -1.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.6% 40% -1.0%
10% -11.9% 0% -10.5%
15% -20.4% 0% -19.1%
20% -28.2% 0% -27.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 96% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% too few recent
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$52
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses5 / 0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 5
History coverage4d
Avg bet$106
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 24? Jun 24 $58 +$13 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 23? Jun 23 $137 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 23? Jun 23 $250 +$35 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 21? Jun 21 $72 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 20? Jun 20 $12 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 14 history records