Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:39:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F6
0xf66f…8e0c
crypto · 290 markets active 11h ago
0.0score
−$391 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$5,989 · open −$7,865
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$118,673
Realized+$5,989
Unrealized−$7,865
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses125 / 156
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Open positions9
Markets (closed)281 / 290
Avg bet$5,302
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%
Chart Positions 9 History 281 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$160
14 days+$1,421
30 days+$1,594
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? No 94¢ 92¢ $81,726 $80,041 −$1,685 (-2%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? No 90¢ 88¢ $27,819 $27,330 −$489 (-2%)
OpenAI IPO before 2027? No 67¢ 48¢ $6,600 $4,673 −$1,927 (-29%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of June? No 88¢ 99¢ $3,958 $4,416 +$458 (+12%)
Anthropic IPO before 2027? No 67¢ 18¢ $4,236 $1,111 −$3,125 (-74%)
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? Yes 54¢ 24¢ $1,361 $604 −$757 (-56%)
Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $100B by December 31? No 47¢ 35¢ $594 $442 −$151 (-26%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,300 by end of June? No 87¢ 99¢ $45 $52 +$6 (+14%)
SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027? No 12¢ 0¢ $200 $4 −$196 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 10 $2,822 −$43 -2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 09 $4,612 −$214 -5%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of June? Jun 09 $3,812 +$200 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 6? Jun 05 $1,017 +$2 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,800 by end of June? Jun 05 $1,011 +$216 +21%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June? Jun 04 $18,539 +$1,269 +7%
Applied Intuition IPO before 2027? Jun 04 $1,749 +$227 +13%
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30? Jun 01 $1,711 −$235 -14%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of June? May 14 $17,018 +$172 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? May 04 $7,975 −$59 -1%
Chirayu Rana fired? May 04 $51 −$4 -8%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? Apr 29 $1,097 +$46 +4%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June? Apr 20 $3,162 −$111 -4%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Apr 17 $500 +$10 +2%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,700 by end of June? Apr 16 $233 +$2 +1%
Cerebras IPO before 2027? Apr 07 $50 +$1 +2%
Ledger IPO before 2027? Apr 07 $100 +$82 +82%
Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch? Apr 03 $8,000 +$1,050 +13%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of March? Apr 01 $10,242 +$664 +6%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Mar 18 $11,534 −$342 -3%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Mar 18 $370 −$45 -12%
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close o Mar 16 $202 −$68 -34%
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on I Mar 14 $380 −$17 -4%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? Mar 12 $29,580 −$646 -2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Mar 09 $9,801 −$213 -2%
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? Mar 06 $100 −$1 -1%
Rippling IPO before 2027? Mar 02 $597 +$122 +20%
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on Feb 26 $300 −$142 -47%
Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026? Feb 26 $8,368 −$5,763 -69%
Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch? Feb 26 $1,333 −$130 -10%
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO da Feb 26 $101 +$15 +15%
Flying Tulip FDV above $1B one day after launch? Feb 23 $888 +$50 +6%
Backpack FDV above $2B one day after launch? Feb 19 $2,747 +$702 +26%
Will OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day Feb 16 $50 +$4 +8%
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? Feb 13 $586 −$89 -15%
Sentient FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jan 18 $559 −$18 -3%
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Jan 17 $470 −$30 -6%
US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026? Jan 15 $500 −$96 -19%
Will Tim Walz resign by June 30? Jan 11 $200 +$22 +11%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jan 11 $250 −$19 -7%
Fogo FDV above $300M one day after launch? Jan 10 $5,369 −$8 -0%
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? Jan 10 $3,885 −$538 -14%
Fogo FDV above $500M one day after launch? Jan 09 $163 +$21 +13%
Tim Walz charged by December 31, 2026? Jan 08 $300 −$55 -18%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? Jan 04 $11,194 +$69 +1%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $45 by end of June? Jan 04 $1,100 −$16 -1%
Fogo FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jan 04 $14,928 +$1,994 +13%
Maduro mugshot released by Monday? Jan 03 $500 −$97 -20%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Jan 03 $1,300 $0 -0%
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jan 01 $2,100 −$233 -11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 66% +$21,311
other 18% −$9,962
tech 9% −$5,491
finance 4% −$537
politics 3% −$7,612
economics 0% +$288
world 0% +$78
sports 0% +$150
culture 0% −$101
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,300 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $2,525 10h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? BUY No 93¢ $2,835 45h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,300 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $2,560 45h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? BUY No 95¢ $2,505 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? SELL No 84¢ $2,779 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? BUY No 95¢ $25 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? BUY No 95¢ $802 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? BUY No 96¢ $14,023 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? BUY No 91¢ $10,036 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? BUY No 94¢ $50,115 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? BUY No 90¢ $4,397 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? SELL No 71¢ $4,398 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? BUY No 90¢ $1,977 2d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of June? SELL No 96¢ $133 2d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,300 by end of June? SELL No 96¢ $1,844 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? BUY No 90¢ $738 2d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $730 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY No 73¢ $4,612 2d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of June? SELL No 98¢ $2,194 2d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,300 by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $2,424 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY No 84¢ $2,822 2d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of June? SELL No 98¢ $1,087 2d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,300 by end of June? SELL No 98¢ $1,287 2d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,300 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $449 3d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? BUY No 94¢ $301 3d
Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $100B by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $301 3d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? BUY No 94¢ $1,250 4d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,300 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $1,249 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? BUY No 90¢ $1,224 4d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,300 by end of June? SELL No 98¢ $1,225 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-21.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +4.1% -5.8% 60% 20% -8.4%
≤30d 9 +3.1% -6.7% 67% 22% -6.8%
≤90d 22 +3.5% -6.3% 59% 18% -6.9%
all 281 -12.7% -21.0% 44% 22% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.0% 22% -9.1%
10% ← realistic here -28.6% 11% -17.8%
15% -35.5% 7% -25.8%
20% -41.8% 6% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $118,672.92 · official $118,672.93 (match) · 1647 history records