Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:25:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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F6 0xf66e…14b7 sports 57 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (52 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$212 (-5%) realized −$239 · open +$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate40%19W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day52.1pace
Fees−$72est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$197now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$209
7 days−$136
14 days−$281
30 days−$281
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% +$51
crypto 13% −$310
other 1% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (52 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +33.9% +21.2% 44% 37% -14.7%
≤30d 48 +20.0% +8.6% 40% 33% -18.2%
≤90d 48 +20.0% +8.6% 40% 33% -18.2%
all 48 +20.0% +8.6% 40% 33% -18.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover52.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +8.6% 33% -18.2%
10% ← realistic here -1.8% 27% -26.1%
15% -11.3% 21% -33.2%
20% -20.0% 10% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +27% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$31 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$197
Realized−$239
Unrealized+$27
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses19 / 29
Est. fees paid−$72
Open positions9
Markets (closed)48 / 57
History coverage7d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day52.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 G2 62¢ 100¢ $46 $75 +$28 (+61%)
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs Wingman (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Playoffs ReThink 23¢ 100¢ $8 $36 +$28 (+327%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? No 86¢ 100¢ $30 $35 +$5 (+16%)
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt Nick Hardt 70¢ 100¢ $17 $25 +$7 (+43%)
ITF Tauste: Belle Thompson vs Celia Anson Sanchez Belle Thompson 72¢ 72¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+0%)
Asuncion 2: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Juan Sebastian Gomez Juan Sebastian Gomez 38¢ 38¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+1%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Under 41¢ 38¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-9%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Under 43¢ 26¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-40%)
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage 1 Group Stage Heretics 51¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 45¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $37 +$11 +29%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 15 $48 +$113 +238%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $3 +$2 +44%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 15 $3 +$3 +129%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $53 −$36 -68%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $60 +$83 +140%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $75 +$14 +18%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $4 +$1 +34%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $4 +$1 +42%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $72 +$83 +116%
Parma: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Damir Dzumhur Jun 15 $3 +$2 +48%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Royan: Lucio Ratti vs Calvin Hemery Jun 15 $47 +$13 +29%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $23 −$23 -98%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $150 +$11 +7%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $310 −$29 -9%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $100 +$6 +6%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $364 −$13 -4%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $200 +$42 +21%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $200 −$56 -28%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $124 −$38 -30%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $177 +$20 +12%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $98 $0 -0%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $199 −$85 -43%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $97 −$12 -12%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $197 +$94 +48%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $193 −$59 -31%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $99 −$17 -18%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $199 +$4 +2%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $97 −$10 -10%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $198 −$48 -24%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $197 −$48 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 09 $36 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 09 $69 −$67 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 09 $35 −$33 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 09 $56 −$52 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 09 $26 −$24 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 09 $71 +$78 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 09 $30 −$29 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 09 $28 −$27 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 09 $68 +$33 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 09 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 08 $55 −$53 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 08 $30 −$29 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 08 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 08 $44 −$42 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 08 $17 −$16 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Asuncion 2: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Juan Sebastian Gomez BUY Juan Sebastian Gomez 38¢ $8 2m
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Under 43¢ $3 6m
ITF Tauste: Belle Thompson vs Celia Anson Sanchez BUY Belle Thompson 71¢ $4 15m
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 41¢ $2 19m
ITF Tauste: Belle Thompson vs Celia Anson Sanchez BUY Belle Thompson 76¢ $4 19m
ITF Tauste: Belle Thompson vs Celia Anson Sanchez BUY Belle Thompson 66¢ $3 21m
ITF Tauste: Belle Thompson vs Celia Anson Sanchez BUY Belle Thompson 76¢ $4 23m
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt BUY Nick Hardt 87¢ $4 30m
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt BUY Nick Hardt 75¢ $4 34m
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt BUY Nick Hardt 84¢ $4 35m
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage BUY Heretics 51¢ $9 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 48¢ $27 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 BUY Over 32¢ $2 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 86¢ $30 1h
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt BUY Nick Hardt 54¢ $3 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 74¢ $5 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 71¢ $4 1h
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt BUY Nick Hardt 49¢ $2 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 67¢ $3 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 36¢ $21 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 10¢ $23 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 25¢ $1 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 25¢ $0 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 25¢ $3 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 56¢ $4 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 56¢ $28 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 55¢ $6 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 56¢ $12 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 45¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 62¢ $47 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $197.09 · official $196.57 (match) · 397 history records