Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:15:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf669…c10a sports 152 markets active 2h ago coverage 965d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$249 (-8%) realized −$169 · open −$80
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate46%64W / 76L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$246now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$28
14 days−$47
30 days−$99
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 43% −$155
other 39% −$35
politics 13% +$3
crypto 5% −$72
tech 0% −$5
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-27.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -76.1% -78.4% 10% 10% -38.9%
≤30d 21 -57.4% -61.5% 29% 24% -44.7%
≤90d 109 -36.1% -42.2% 34% 28% -35.6%
all 140 -20.1% -27.7% 46% 37% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.7% 37% -15.9%
10% -34.7% 31% -23.9%
15% -41.0% 22% -31.3%
20% -46.8% 15% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +27% → late -68% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$10 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

965d coverage
Net worth$246
Realized−$169
Unrealized−$80
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses64 / 76
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions12
Markets (closed)140 / 152
History coverage965d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 140 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes 78¢ 72¢ $70 $65 −$5 (-7%)
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 68¢ 36¢ $102 $53 −$49 (-48%)
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? No 76¢ 72¢ $38 $36 −$2 (-5%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $30 $25 −$5 (-17%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-18%)
Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch? No 78¢ 61¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-21%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $18 $13 −$5 (-28%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $16 $9 −$7 (-44%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 90¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 18¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+37%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-21%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $40 −$1 -3%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $14 +$6 +42%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $29 +$11 +36%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $29 −$29 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 07 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 06 $16 +$4 +25%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 06 $17 +$1 +3%
LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 29 $7 +$3 +45%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 27 $14 −$14 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 27 $41 −$40 -99%
LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challe May 26 $2 −$2 -76%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 20 $8 +$2 +23%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 20 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 17 $7 +$3 +41%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 17 $5 +$14 +276%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 15 $11 +$4 +37%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 15 $20 +$8 +42%
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 15 $13 −$13 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 09 $7 −$7 -100%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 03 $41 +$9 +22%
LoL: KT Rolster vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 03 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: VfB eSports vs Eintracht Spandau (BO3) - Prime League 1st Divisio Apr 29 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: UB Alma Mater vs ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix (BO3) - LES Regular Season Apr 29 $1 −$1 -97%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs FALKE Esports (BO3) - LES Regular Season Apr 29 $1 −$1 -97%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 29 $1 −$1 -97%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 26 $20 +$5 +23%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 24 $107 −$68 -64%
LoL: Oh My God vs LNG Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana Apr 24 $26 $0 -0%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 23 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 22 $10 −$6 -64%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 22 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO3) - LCK Chal Apr 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Warriors vs. Suns Apr 22 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: EXILE esports vs eSuba (BO3) - Hitpoint Masters Regular Season Apr 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? Apr 22 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 22 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 22 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: ROSSMANN Centaurs vs Team Orange Gaming (BO1) - Prime League 1st Apr 22 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Skillcamp Esport vs Solary (BO1) - LFL Regular Season Apr 22 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 22 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Shopify Rebellion (BO3) - LCS Regular Season Apr 22 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Maryville University vs Citadel Gaming (BO3) - North American Cha Apr 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $39 1h
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 2d
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 1 Tunisia? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 2d
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 2d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 2d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 2d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 2d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $12 3d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 3d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $24 3d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $18 4d
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY No 76¢ $38 4d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $30 4d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $20 4d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $16 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $14 5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 52¢ $10 6d
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 77¢ $8 7d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 73¢ $22 9d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Dplus KIA 97¢ $19 10d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 75¢ $8 10d
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 5¢ $4 10d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Dplus KIA 82¢ $10 10d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 80¢ $16 11d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $17 11d
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 78¢ $62 14d
LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY JD Gaming 69¢ $7 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $246.34 · official $246.34 (match) · 398 history records