Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:17:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf665…c836 world 61 markets active 1h ago coverage 530d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$13 (+0%) realized +$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate51%30W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$4
14 days−$3
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% +$15
other 27% −$14
sports 16% +$6
politics 12% +$4
tech 3% +$1
economics 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -0.9% -10.3% 27% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 25 -0.5% -9.9% 36% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 37 -1.1% -10.5% 43% 5% -8.8%
all 59 -1.0% -10.4% 51% 10% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 10% -9.2%
10% -19.0% 8% -17.8%
15% -26.8% 7% -25.8%
20% -34.0% 3% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

530d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses30 / 29
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)59 / 61
History coverage530d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 90¢ 89¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 86¢ 88¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 21 $46 +$1 +2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 20 $266 −$1 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 20 $46 $0 +0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 20 $40 −$1 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 19 $47 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $21 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $47 −$1 -2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $3 $0 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 18 $53 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $9 −$1 -9%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $51 −$1 -2%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $47 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $52 −$1 -2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $91 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $37 +$2 +4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $86 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 09 $29 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $60 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $51 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $90 +$9 +10%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $93 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 28 $48 $0 +1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 26 $3 $0 -13%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 25 $57 −$1 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $57 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 21 $20 +$9 +48%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 21 $11 $0 -0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 15 $179 +$1 +0%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W Apr 26 $87 +$2 +3%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 25 $86 +$1 +1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 20 $228 +$2 +1%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 19 $3 $0 -5%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 19 $228 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 18 $251 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $35 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 17 $74 +$1 +1%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $228 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Dec 07 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Dec 07 $1 $0 +4%
Will Jack Draper win Wimbledon 2025? Dec 07 $1 $0 +6%
Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 35% of the vote in the South Korea el Jun 06 $1 $0 +2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? May 08 $2 $0 +2%
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Apr 23 $4 −$1 -20%
Will the Giants draft Travis Hunter? Apr 22 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 6-9%? Apr 20 $4 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $93000 on Feb 28? Mar 20 $6 $0 +2%
Will Alabama win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Feb 27 $6 $0 +2%
Will another individual win the Romanian Presidential election? Feb 18 $6 $0 +3%
Will annual inflation increase by 2.8% in January? Feb 13 $5 +$1 +27%
Nebraska Omaha vs. San Diego State Feb 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $44 35m
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $52 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 93¢ $1 13h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 93¢ $46 13h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 91¢ $46 17h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 52¢ $29 22h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 52¢ $29 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 91¢ $46 38h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 91¢ $46 40h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 90¢ $39 42h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 92¢ $37 45h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 92¢ $3 45h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 83¢ $37 47h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 83¢ $11 47h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 83¢ $47 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $8 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $13 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $21 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $46 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $47 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $53 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $53 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $30 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $23 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $53 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.39 · official $8.05 · 205 history records