Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T10:33:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
F6 0xf664…8470 politics 143 markets active 0h ago coverage 155d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$675 (+0%) realized +$675 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate25%36W / 106L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$1,047per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$744now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$3
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 38% −$72
other 36% +$54
sports 13% +$803
economics 6% −$101
culture 3% −$7
world 2% −$34
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 22 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 70 -0.1% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.6%
all 142 +2.2% -7.5% 25% 11% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 11% -9.1%
10% -16.4% 11% -17.8%
15% -24.5% 9% -25.8%
20% -31.9% 8% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,616) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$7 · ×5.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.9 per $1 lost it wins $1.9
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

155d coverage
Net worth$744
Realized+$675
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses36 / 106
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)142 / 143
History coverage155d
Avg bet$1,047
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 142 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $744 $744 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 28 $219 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 28 $219 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 27 $212 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $243 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $226 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $251 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $647 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $2,383 −$3 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $3,543 −$4 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $723 −$1 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 12 $1,486 −$2 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $1,671 −$2 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1,466 −$2 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $3,672 −$4 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $2,545 −$3 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1,422 −$2 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $4,257 −$5 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $2,002 −$3 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $2,754 −$3 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $2,912 −$5 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 02 $631 +$2 +0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $1,145 −$2 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $1,027 −$2 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $2,543 −$4 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $1,176 −$2 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 26 $1,053 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $1,038 −$2 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 24 $1,798 −$3 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $1,049 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? May 19 $742 −$2 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 09 $1,654 −$2 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 09 $1,857 −$2 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $1,711 −$3 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 08 $1,694 −$3 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $1,676 −$2 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $1,689 −$2 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 06 $1,587 −$2 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $2,659 −$3 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $1,676 −$3 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 02 $1,522 −$2 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 02 $1,539 −$2 -0%
Will Alibaba have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Cont May 02 $501 +$1 +0%
Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Contr May 02 $554 +$1 +0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $1,722 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 30 $420 +$1 +0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 27 $311 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $2,167 −$2 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $3,031 −$3 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $2,932 −$3 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $2,385 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $219 7m
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $219 1h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $219 4h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $219 7h
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $212 25h
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $212 28h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $242 7d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $243 7d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $226 8d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $226 8d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $250 8d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $251 8d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $646 10d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $647 10d
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? BUY No 100¢ $724 12d
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? BUY No 100¢ $20 12d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,307 14d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,309 14d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,667 15d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,669 15d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $722 15d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $723 16d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,483 16d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,486 16d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,669 16d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,671 17d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,463 17d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,466 17d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,543 20d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,545 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $743.84 · official $743.84 (match) · 411 history records