Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T23:08:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf663…04de other 202 markets active 2h ago coverage 218d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,267 (+7%) realized +$1,617 · open −$350
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate24%49W / 151L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown77%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$63est.
Kalshi-fit21%portable
Net worth$128now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$143
7 days+$116
14 days−$96
30 days−$409
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% +$164
sports 23% +$663
crypto 2% −$236
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-23.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -29.5% -36.2% 50% 50% +18.2%
≤30d 27 -34.8% -41.0% 22% 22% -15.8%
≤90d 91 -16.9% -24.8% 27% 27% +0.8%
all 200 -15.7% -23.7% 24% 24% -4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.7% 24% -4.2%
10% -31.0% 24% -13.4%
15% -37.7% 22% -21.7%
20% -43.8% 18% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -13% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$185 vs −$54 · ×3.42 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

218d coverage
Net worth$128
Realized+$1,617
Unrealized−$350
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses49 / 151
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$63
Open positions2
Markets (closed)200 / 202
History coverage218d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown77%
Kalshi-fit21%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 200 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will MrBeast's next video get between 39 and 41 million views on day 2? Yes 47¢ 12¢ $448 $110 −$338 (-76%)
Will MrBeast's next video get between 41 and 43 million views on day 2? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $30 $19 −$11 (-37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 77 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 Jun 28 $349 +$143 +41%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 22 $29 −$28 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -96%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week Jun 19 $105 −$100 -96%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 47 and 48 million views on day 3 Jun 17 $205 −$205 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $90 +$114 +126%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 37 and 39 million views on day 2 Jun 15 $16 −$15 -95%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 14 $473 −$470 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -97%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 Jun 14 $71 +$409 +580%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 Jun 13 $383 −$371 -97%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $76 −$73 -95%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $1,410 −$1,333 -94%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 07 $9 −$8 -95%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $1,412 +$2,744 +194%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 03 $356 −$352 -99%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 May 31 $674 −$655 -97%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 May 31 $14 +$5 +37%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $59 −$57 -97%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 20 million views on day 1? May 30 $77 −$64 -83%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1 May 30 $57 −$57 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 May 30 $6 −$6 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 May 30 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 30 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET May 30 $5 +$8 +159%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week May 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 29 $636 −$612 -96%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 29 $420 −$420 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 23 $35 +$16 +46%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 23 $51 −$6 -11%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week May 23 $3,536 +$1,449 +41%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $46 +$52 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET May 22 $1 −$1 -94%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 May 17 $315 +$1,694 +538%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 May 16 $217 −$217 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 May 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET May 14 $5 +$4 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 13 $8 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 13 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 13 $2 +$4 +211%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 13 $1 +$2 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 12 $2 +$3 +155%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 12 $360 −$348 -97%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $40 +$176 +442%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will MrBeast's next video get between 39 and 41 million views on day 2 BUY Yes 47¢ $460 1h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 41 and 43 million views on day 2 BUY Yes 1¢ $31 1h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 SELL Yes 100¢ $492 8h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 BUY Yes 69¢ $349 24h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $29 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 7d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week BUY Yes 7¢ $105 9d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 47 and 48 million views on day 3 BUY Yes 5¢ $2 13d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 47 and 48 million views on day 3 BUY Yes 5¢ $203 13d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $204 13d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 43¢ $90 13d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 37 and 39 million views on day 2 BUY Yes 1¢ $10 13d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 37 and 39 million views on day 2 BUY Yes 0¢ $5 13d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $473 14d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 5¢ $6 14d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 SELL Yes 99¢ $479 14d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 BUY Yes 14¢ $71 15d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 BUY Yes 38¢ $383 15d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $76 19d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 5¢ $8 19d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 3¢ $69 19d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 21d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $1,410 21d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 21d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 99¢ $4,156 22d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 33¢ $1,412 23d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $356 25d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 BUY Yes 1¢ $19 28d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 SELL Yes 80¢ $19 28d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 7¢ $59 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $128.43 · official $128.43 (match) · 436 history records