Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T14:33:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf663…6368 crypto 224 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (80 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$31 (-1%) realized −$28 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate74%162W / 58L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day80.1pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$151now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$76
other 9% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (80 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 220 -9.1% -17.8% 74% 25% -12.8%
≤30d 220 -9.1% -17.8% 74% 25% -12.8%
≤90d 220 -9.1% -17.8% 74% 25% -12.8%
all 220 -9.1% -17.8% 74% 25% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover80.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.8% 25% -12.8%
10% ← realistic here -25.7% 17% -21.2%
15% -32.8% 9% -28.8%
20% -39.4% 3% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
66% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$151
Realized−$28
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses162 / 58
Open positions4
Markets (closed)220 / 224
History coverage5d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day80.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 220 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $96 $94 −$2 (-2%)
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ecuador reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 63¢ 62¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 27 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 27 $3 +$3 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 27 $3 +$2 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 27 $3 −$3 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 27 $3 −$1 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 27 $3 −$2 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 27 $9 −$2 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 27 $8 −$3 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 27 $9 −$2 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 27 $11 −$6 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 27 $10 −$4 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 27 $12 −$6 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 27 $9 +$5 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 27 $9 −$4 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$4 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 27 $9 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 88¢ $57 3m
Will Ecuador reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 63¢ $2 53m
Will Ecuador reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 63¢ $26 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 6h
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 89¢ $88 11h
Will Brazil reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 51¢ $98 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Up 3¢ $0 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $3 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Up 5¢ $0 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Up 38¢ $2 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 6¢ $1 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $3 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $9 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 33¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $9 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 30¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $6 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $151.03 · official $151.03 (match) · 614 history records