trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | No | 76¢ | 84¢ | $165,185 | $184,632 | +$19,447 (+12%) |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | No | 87¢ | 100¢ | $80,039 | $91,586 | +$11,546 (+14%) |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | $1,993 | $0 | −$1,993 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | Jun 02 | $9,600 | +$10,400 | +108% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? | May 23 | $5,066 | −$4,326 | -85% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | May 12 | $149,837 | +$47,083 | +31% |
| Will Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election? | Mar 23 | $9,915 | +$4,666 | +47% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in March? | Mar 13 | $10,065 | −$5,610 | -56% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on March 11? | Mar 12 | $41 | +$3 | +6% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? | Mar 04 | $143 | +$80 | +56% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? | Feb 24 | $89 | +$43 | +48% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 2 | +4.2% | -5.8% | 50% | 50% | +56.1% |
| ≤90d | 4 | +21.7% | +10.1% | 75% | 75% | +22.2% |
| all | 8 | +17.7% | +6.5% | 75% | 62% | +17.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | +6.5% | 62% | +17.7% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -3.7% | 62% | +6.4% |
| 15% | -13.0% | 50% | -3.8% |
| 20% | -21.6% | 25% | -13.3% |