Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T08:06:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
F6 0xf65f…8240 other 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 624d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$66 (-4%) realized −$66 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate63%19W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$26
14 days+$38
30 days+$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% +$139
politics 38% −$182
sports 9% +$20
crypto 7% −$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +8.8% -1.6% 73% 55% -5.2%
≤30d 12 +9.1% -1.3% 75% 58% -4.2%
≤90d 12 +9.1% -1.3% 75% 58% -4.2%
all 30 +3.3% -6.6% 63% 50% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.6% 50% -13.0%
10% -15.5% 40% -21.4%
15% -23.7% 30% -29.0%
20% -31.2% 20% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$47 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

624d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$66
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses19 / 11
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage624d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $7 +$4 +65%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $41 −$19 -46%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $20 +$10 +48%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $30 +$13 +44%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $93 +$37 +40%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $80 −$45 -56%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $126 +$11 +9%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $2 $0 +4%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $20 +$6 +29%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 −$12 -57%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $112 +$21 +18%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $99 +$12 +12%
Will Anthony Joshua win by KO/TKO/DQ? Feb 24 $27 +$8 +32%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 20 $22 +$4 +20%
Brazilian Supreme Court Minister Alexandre de Moraes be impeached 2025 Dec 12 $389 −$347 -89%
50% Brazil tariff in effect by August 1? Jul 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? May 29 $11 +$1 +6%
Magomedov vs. Page Feb 02 $4 +$7 +170%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025? Jan 27 $30 −$26 -86%
Tulsi Gabbard confirmed as Director of National Intelligence? Jan 20 $37 −$6 -17%
Will Joe Rogan attend presidential inauguration? Jan 16 $10 +$2 +25%
Pete Hegseth confirmed as Secretary of Defense? Jan 16 $22 +$2 +8%
Will Trump say "illegal immigrant" or "illegal immigration" during his Jan 14 $22 $0 -0%
Bitcoin above $97,000 on January 10? Jan 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Mark Zuckerberg attend presidential inauguration? Jan 11 $6 +$4 +56%
Bitcoin above $94,000 on January 3? Jan 04 $40 −$8 -19%
Will Usyk beat Fury? Dec 22 $35 +$21 +61%
Jones vs. Miocic Dec 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson? Nov 16 $180 +$120 +67%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $289 +$159 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $50 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $7 10h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 30¢ $22 2d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $20 2d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $20 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 69¢ $30 3d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 71¢ $93 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 31¢ $3 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 33¢ $10 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 40¢ $22 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $80 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 92¢ $76 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 96¢ $2 5d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 77¢ $20 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 31¢ $9 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $50 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 84¢ $112 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $99 7d
Will Anthony Joshua win by KO/TKO/DQ? BUY Yes 76¢ $27 189d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2025? SELL No 90¢ $27 189d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 75¢ $22 196d
Brazilian Supreme Court Minister Alexandre de Moraes be impeached 2025 SELL Yes $19 196d
Brazilian Supreme Court Minister Alexandre de Moraes be impeached 2025 SELL Yes $3 243d
50% Brazil tariff in effect by August 1? BUY Yes 76¢ $20 338d
Brazilian Supreme Court Minister Alexandre de Moraes be impeached 2025 SELL Yes 13¢ $6 338d
Brazilian Supreme Court Minister Alexandre de Moraes be impeached 2025 SELL Yes 14¢ $14 338d
Brazilian Supreme Court Minister Alexandre de Moraes be impeached 2025 BUY Yes 16¢ $377 351d
Brazilian Supreme Court Minister Alexandre de Moraes be impeached 2025 BUY Yes $12 394d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.71 · official $49.71 (match) · 75 history records