Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:04:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf65f…9531 crypto 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (169 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$27 (+1%) realized +$27 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate58%19W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day168.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (169 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -2.1% -11.4% 58% 15% -10.2%
≤30d 33 -2.1% -11.4% 58% 15% -10.2%
≤90d 33 -2.1% -11.4% 58% 15% -10.2%
all 33 -2.1% -11.4% 58% 15% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover168.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.4% 15% -10.2%
10% ← realistic here -19.9% 6% -18.8%
15% -27.6% 0% -26.6%
20% -34.7% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$8 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses19 / 14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage2d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day168.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 20 $95 +$8 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 20 $139 −$3 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 20 $41 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 20 $95 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 20 $125 +$36 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 20 $21 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 20 $69 +$5 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 20 $47 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 20 $78 −$24 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 20 $78 +$12 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 20 $79 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 20 $41 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 19 $88 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 19 $96 −$9 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 19 $46 −$3 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 19 $83 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 19 $104 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 19 $53 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 19 $16 +$5 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 19 $59 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 18 $42 +$5 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 18 $108 −$52 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 18 $47 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 18 $54 −$3 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 18 $62 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 18 $65 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 18 $64 −$7 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 18 $33 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 18 $96 −$7 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 18 $15 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Up 3¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 6¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $40 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $3 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 350 history records