Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:51:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
F6 0xf65e…7cac weather 119 markets active 4h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (81 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$104 (+18%) realized +$161 · open −$57
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +133% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +80% what you keep after slip
Net edge+80%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate55%21W / 17L
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day81.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$343now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$86
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (81 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+111.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +133.3% +111.1% 55% 53% +75.1%
≤30d 38 +133.3% +111.1% 55% 53% +75.1%
≤90d 38 +133.3% +111.1% 55% 53% +75.1%
all 38 +133.3% +111.1% 55% 53% +75.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover81.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +111.1% 53% +75.1%
10% ← realistic here +90.9% 47% +58.3%
15% +72.4% 32% +43.0%
20% +55.5% 24% +29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +94% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +133% · $-wt +94% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -78% → late +344% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$3 · ×3.45 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.26 per $1 lost it wins $4.26
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$343
Realized+$161
Unrealized−$57
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses21 / 17
Open positions81
Markets (closed)38 / 119
History coverage2d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day81.4
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 81 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 19? Yes 34¢ 26¢ $19 $14 −$5 (-26%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 19? Yes 32¢ 38¢ $11 $13 +$2 (+20%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 19? Yes 28¢ 36¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+30%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C on June 19? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $13 $12 −$1 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 19? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $9 $12 +$3 (+30%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 17? Yes 48¢ 100¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+108%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 19? No 72¢ 64¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 19? No 67¢ 74¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 19? Yes 23¢ 34¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+50%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 19? Yes 18¢ 13¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-27%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 19? No 76¢ 68¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 19? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 19? Yes 16¢ 10¢ $12 $7 −$5 (-42%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 19? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C or below on June 19? Yes 12¢ 8¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-33%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 18? No 76¢ 69¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-9%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 19? Yes 31¢ 40¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+27%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 19? Yes 25¢ 40¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+58%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 18? No 78¢ 34¢ $14 $6 −$8 (-56%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 19? No 80¢ 94¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+18%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 17? No 86¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 18? Yes 17¢ 96¢ $1 $6 +$5 (+465%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 19? No 65¢ 72¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 19? No 64¢ 71¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 19? No 69¢ 75¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 17? Jun 18 $3 +$7 +212%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 17? Jun 18 $5 +$1 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 17? Jun 18 $5 +$2 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 27°C on June 17? Jun 18 $1 +$22 +2111%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 17? Jun 18 $5 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 17? Jun 18 $8 +$3 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 17? Jun 18 $2 +$7 +338%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 17? Jun 18 $4 +$1 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on June 17? Jun 17 $3 +$15 +476%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 +$4 +84%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 +$3 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 +$5 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $6 +$30 +478%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 +$50 +963%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 +$17 +1668%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $7 +$2 +27%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 17 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? Jun 17 $5 +$11 +208%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 17? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 17? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 28°C on June 17? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 17? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 17? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 17? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 17? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 17? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 17? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 17? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 17? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 69°F or below on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 17? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 17? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 17? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on June 17? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 96-97°F on June 17? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 19? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 19? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 19? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 19? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 19? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 19? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 19? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 19? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 19? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 19? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C on June 19? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 19? BUY No 72¢ $10 7h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 19? BUY Yes 31¢ $4 7h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 19? BUY No 68¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 19? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 19? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 7h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 19? BUY No 64¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 19? BUY Yes 25¢ $4 7h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 19? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 7h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 19? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 7h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C on June 19? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 9h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C on June 19? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 19? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 9h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 19? BUY No 69¢ $5 9h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 19? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 9h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 19? BUY No 67¢ $4 9h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 19? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 10h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 19? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 10h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 19? BUY Yes 10¢ $6 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $343.14 · official $343.15 (match) · 191 history records