Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T17:46:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf65d…b385 other 191 markets active 0h ago coverage 704d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$263 (-5%) realized −$263 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate2%4W / 182L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$340
7 days−$340
14 days−$340
30 days−$340
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$168
tech 13% −$42
politics 13% −$44
world 9% −$51
culture 7% −$24
economics 3% −$8
finance 2% −$8
sports 1% −$5
crypto 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 172 -10.3% -18.9% 2% 1% -16.1%
≤30d 172 -10.3% -18.9% 2% 1% -16.1%
≤90d 172 -10.3% -18.9% 2% 1% -16.1%
all 186 -10.5% -19.0% 2% 1% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.0% 1% -16.1%
10% -26.7% 0% -24.1%
15% -33.8% 0% -31.5%
20% -40.3% 0% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 93% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

704d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized−$263
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)2%
Wins / losses4 / 182
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)186 / 191
History coverage704d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 186 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Wes Streeting be the next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-5%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 50¢ 62¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+23%)
Will Julián Álvarez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 71¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Kylian Mbappé record the most goal contributions at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 35¢ 36¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? No 55¢ 56¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Emiliano Martínez win the Golden Glove at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 28 $14 −$2 -13%
Will Lamine Yamal win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 28 $79 −$7 -9%
Will Florian Wirtz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $8 −$1 -13%
Will Egypt be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup? Jun 28 $11 −$1 -7%
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Jun 28 $79 −$6 -7%
Will Colombia be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Jun 28 $5 $0 -3%
Will New York Yankees win the 2026 AL East title? Jun 28 $6 $0 -6%
Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 28 $139 −$3 -2%
Will Raphinha score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $42 −$2 -6%
World Cup Goals H2H: Haaland vs. Alvarez Jun 28 $0 $0 -81%
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Jun 28 $0 $0 -19%
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43m? Jun 28 $4 −$4 -92%
Will Zelenskyy post 40-59 posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Jun 28 $2 $0 -17%
Will Algeria be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 28 $1 $0 -40%
Will Republican House incumbents not win in between seven and nine nom Jun 28 $4 −$4 -80%
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 28 $2 −$1 -33%
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Jun 28 $6 +$1 +13%
Will Blake Miguez be the Republican nominee for LA-05? Jun 28 $2 $0 -16%
Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Jun 28 $12 −$1 -6%
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? Jun 28 $30 −$3 -9%
Will Snapchat be acquired before 2027? Jun 28 $6 −$2 -28%
Will Republican House incumbents not win in more than fifteen nominati Jun 28 $4 $0 +2%
Will USD be between 1.6M and 1.7M Iranian rials on June 30? Jun 28 $36 −$25 -71%
Will Kevin McGonigle win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award? Jun 28 $33 −$6 -17%
Will Colombia be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? Jun 28 $44 −$7 -15%
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between Jun 28 $147 −$4 -3%
Will there be 5+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $6 $0 -3%
Will Christian Pulisic score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $3 $0 -4%
Tori FDV above $300M one day after launch? Jun 28 $33 $0 -2%
Will Ritual launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 28 $14 −$2 -12%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazili Jun 28 $37 −$2 -4%
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Jun 28 $71 −$6 -9%
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Jun 28 $98 −$10 -10%
Will Delta Q2 passenger revenue per available seat mile be between 19 Jun 28 $16 −$2 -12%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PSD? Jun 28 $114 −$11 -9%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL? Jun 28 $60 −$4 -7%
Will Delta Q2 passenger revenue per available seat mile be between 20 Jun 28 $5 −$1 -16%
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from June 26 to July Jun 28 $14 −$3 -22%
Will Algeria be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Jun 28 $14 −$2 -16%
Will Morocco be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup? Jun 28 $12 $0 -3%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 50 million views on week Jun 28 $3 $0 -0%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2 Jun 28 $91 −$1 -1%
Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 75m and 85m? Jun 28 $38 −$8 -22%
World Cup Goals H2H: Mbappe vs. Kane Jun 28 $17 −$2 -11%
Will Luka Modrić score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $4 −$1 -15%
FDA approves Arcalyst technology transfer? Jun 28 $23 −$3 -13%
Will DR Congo be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 28 $7 −$1 -16%
Yo FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 28 $13 −$1 -7%
Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 115m? Jun 28 $90 −$5 -6%
Will Delta Q2 passenger revenue per available seat mile be below 18 ce Jun 28 $3 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? SELL Yes 44¢ $4 10m
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? BUY Yes 44¢ $4 10m
Will Wes Streeting be the next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $7 17m
Will Wes Streeting be the next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $7 17m
Will Wes Streeting be the next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $7 18m
Will Emiliano Martínez win the Golden Glove at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 17¢ $8 20m
Will Wes Streeting be the next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $9 31m
Will Wes Streeting be the next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 31m
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 43¢ $4 33m
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 49¢ $5 38m
Will Julián Álvarez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $2 50m
Will Lamine Yamal win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL Yes 40¢ $17 55m
Will Lamine Yamal win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 42¢ $18 55m
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? BUY No 55¢ $1 58m
Will Florian Wirtz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 30¢ $5 1h
Will Egypt be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup? SELL Yes 21¢ $10 1h
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026? SELL Yes 36¢ $3 1h
Will Egypt be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $11 1h
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $3 1h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 50¢ $2 1h
Will Florian Wirtz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 35¢ $2 1h
Will Florian Wirtz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 35¢ $8 1h
Will Emiliano Martínez win the Golden Glove at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 20¢ $10 1h
Will Colombia be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? SELL No 70¢ $4 1h
Will Colombia be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY No 71¢ $5 1h
Will New York Yankees win the 2026 AL East title? SELL No 31¢ $6 1h
Will New York Yankees win the 2026 AL East title? BUY No 32¢ $6 1h
Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL No 86¢ $43 1h
Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 87¢ $44 1h
Will Raphinha score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 71¢ $35 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.88 · official $13.88 (match) · 740 history records