Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:43:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
F6 0xf65b…b847 sports 55 markets active 1h ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$53 (-1%) realized −$53 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate65%35W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$219
7 days−$160
14 days−$162
30 days−$150
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% +$114
crypto 9% −$221
world 1% +$7
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -14.7% -22.8% 55% 45% -14.0%
≤30d 22 -16.4% -24.3% 64% 41% -13.4%
≤90d 54 -9.0% -17.7% 65% 48% -11.8%
all 54 -9.0% -17.7% 65% 48% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.7% 48% -11.8%
10% -25.6% 31% -20.2%
15% -32.8% 22% -27.9%
20% -39.4% 11% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$16 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$53
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses35 / 19
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)54 / 55
History coverage62d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 95¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $37 −$35 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $166 −$161 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $23 −$23 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +86%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $3,002 +$58 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 05 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 05 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $20 +$3 +15%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $10 +$6 +56%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $13 +$1 +11%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs ex-HEROIC (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET May 25 $21 +$3 +13%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Legacy (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Playoffs May 23 $50 +$3 +5%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? May 23 $4 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 17 $40 +$18 +45%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $30 +$6 +21%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $9 −$9 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET May 14 $12 +$5 +41%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Liquid (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B May 14 $19 +$10 +50%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 13 $25 +$4 +17%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Group S May 13 $11 −$11 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET May 11 $13 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET May 11 $12 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET May 11 $12 −$6 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET May 11 $12 +$3 +25%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Heroic (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 10 $17 +$7 +40%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs The Huns Esports (BO3) - PGL Astana G May 10 $3 $0 +6%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 10 $2 $0 -23%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 10 $12 −$12 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 10 $11 −$11 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs The Huns Esports (BO3) - PGL Astana Group St May 09 $3 $0 +4%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs K27 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 09 $3 $0 +13%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 09 $40 +$14 +36%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs GamerLegion (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Grou May 01 $20 +$6 +31%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Astralis (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A Apr 30 $80 +$9 +12%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A Apr 30 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs FURIA (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group B Apr 30 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs GamerLegion (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group B Apr 30 $3 +$9 +291%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs G2 (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A Apr 29 $15 +$12 +76%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FaZe (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group B Apr 29 $30 +$8 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $3 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $6 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $2 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $4 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 22h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner SELL TheMongolz 100¢ $3,060 6d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 98¢ $3,002 6d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 95¢ $10 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 11d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 SELL TYLOO 57¢ $0 12d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 SELL TYLOO 57¢ $23 12d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY TYLOO 48¢ $20 12d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs ex-HEROIC (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY ex-HEROIC 100¢ $100 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.45 · official $10.45 (match) · 110 history records