Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T17:13:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
F6 0xf65a…fcf3 crypto 244 markets active 0h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$377 (-9%) realized −$421 · open +$44
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate67%163W / 80L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day27.1pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$35
14 days−$278
30 days−$302
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$188
other 11% −$70
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-3.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 90 +12.4% +1.7% 62% 57% -11.1%
≤30d 243 +6.7% -3.5% 67% 47% -15.8%
≤90d 243 +6.7% -3.5% 67% 47% -15.8%
all 243 +6.7% -3.5% 67% 47% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.5% 47% -15.8%
10% ← realistic here -12.7% 35% -23.9%
15% -21.2% 30% -31.2%
20% -28.9% 23% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$13 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized−$421
Unrealized+$44
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses163 / 80
Open positions1
Markets (closed)243 / 244
History coverage19d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day27.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 243 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Up 0¢ 62¢ $0 $44 +$44 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 22 $65 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 22 $66 +$11 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 22 $67 +$80 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 22 $66 +$13 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$4 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 22 $7 +$9 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$5 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 22 $66 −$34 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 22 $66 +$12 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$7 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$6 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 22 $66 +$11 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 22 $66 +$10 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 22 $66 +$5 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 22 $66 −$56 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 22 $66 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 22 $56 +$9 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 22 $56 +$9 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 22 $56 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 22 $56 +$8 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 22 $56 −$30 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 22 $56 −$27 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 22 $56 +$13 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 22 $56 +$9 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 22 $56 −$31 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 22 $56 −$28 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$6 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$7 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$7 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 22 $56 +$7 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$6 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 22 $56 −$30 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$4 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$2 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 22 $56 +$18 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$3 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$4 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$3 -65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $61 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 15¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Up 10¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $60 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $61 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Down 22¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $62 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $4 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $61 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Down 22¢ $2 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $0 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Down 38¢ $30 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $61 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Up 27¢ $2 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $61 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.12 · official $44.12 (match) · 722 history records