Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:48:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf658…655e sports 804 markets active 0h ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$79,916 (-5%) realized +$9,912 · open −$2,910
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR66%break-even
Win rate66%530W / 270L
Whale WR66%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,992per market
Trades / day79.5pace
Fees−$14,738est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$6,490now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,469
7 days+$6,172
14 days−$25,252
30 days−$40,905
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% +$2,320
other 10% +$4,021
world 0% +$616
crypto 0% +$45
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +66%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 -1.1% -10.5% 65% 63% -5.8%
≤30d 593 -4.6% -13.7% 65% 65% -12.4%
≤90d 800 -0.2% -9.7% 66% 66% -9.0%
all 800 -0.2% -9.7% 66% 66% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover79.5 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.7% 66% -9.0%
10% -18.3% 60% -17.7%
15% ← realistic here -26.2% 42% -25.6%
20% -33.5% 24% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 66% (≥$2,234) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$969 vs −$1,865 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$6,490
Realized+$9,912
Unrealized−$2,910
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses530 / 270
Whale WR (big bets)66%
Est. fees paid−$14,738
Open positions4
Markets (closed)800 / 804
History coverage40d
Avg bet$1,992
Trades / day79.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 800 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? No 73¢ 72¢ $4,000 $3,973 −$27 (-1%)
Fenerbahce vs. Besiktas Fenerbahce 75¢ 72¢ $1,400 $1,350 −$50 (-4%)
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5 Under 76¢ 44¢ $2,000 $1,166 −$834 (-42%)
CD Universidad Católica vs. CD Universidad de Concepción: O/U 5.5 Under 80¢ 0¢ $2,000 $1 −$1,999 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 11.5 Jun 14 $1,006 +$243 +24%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $1,107 −$1,107 -100%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $4,028 +$1,181 +29%
Málaga CF vs. UD Almería: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2,226 +$1,357 +61%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $2,012 +$462 +23%
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 14 $1,508 +$293 +20%
Joventut vs. Valencia Jun 14 $1,522 −$1,456 -96%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $6,688 +$5,310 +79%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3,842 +$2,190 +57%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 14 $5,362 +$410 +8%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $6,265 −$6,265 -100%
Dallas Wings vs. PortlandFire Jun 14 $2,018 −$2,018 -100%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-4.5) Jun 14 $5,064 +$3,643 +72%
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 169.5 Jun 14 $3,041 −$3,041 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $6,054 +$2,538 +42%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3,821 −$3,821 -100%
Fenerbahce vs. Besiktas Jun 13 $2,013 −$2,013 -100%
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Panathinaikos Jun 13 $3,127 +$1,252 +40%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 158.5 Jun 13 $1,825 +$1,546 +85%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $2,029 −$2,029 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $2,625 −$2,625 -100%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 168.5 Jun 13 $2,026 +$1,480 +73%
Partizan vs. BC Dubai Jun 12 $1,111 −$1,111 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5,568 +$3,769 +68%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $6,064 +$3,264 +54%
FC Bayern Munchen vs. Alba Berlin Jun 12 $1,810 +$403 +22%
BC Zenit vs. Lokomotiv Kuban Jun 12 $1,817 −$1,817 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $1,108 −$1,108 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $605 +$207 +34%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 170.5 Jun 12 $1,216 +$927 +76%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2,523 +$1,100 +44%
Olimpia Milano vs. Reyer Venezia Jun 11 $1,206 +$252 +21%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm Jun 11 $101 +$74 +73%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) Jun 11 $5,051 +$2,490 +49%
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 11 $1,017 +$1,313 +129%
Valencia vs. Joventut Jun 10 $1,007 +$274 +27%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 10 $2,519 +$833 +33%
Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas: O/U 4.5 Jun 10 $1,609 +$361 +22%
Partizan vs. BC Dubai Jun 10 $2,020 +$1,006 +50%
Besiktas vs. Bahcesehir Koleji Jun 10 $1,310 +$423 +32%
Iraq vs. Venezuela: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $2,014 +$617 +31%
Atlanta Dream vs. Chicago Sky Jun 10 $1,816 +$733 +40%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $1,209 +$391 +32%
UD Almería vs. CD Castellón: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $1,314 −$1,314 -100%
UD Almería vs. CD Castellón: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $1,817 −$1,817 -100%
Togo vs. Benin: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $3,025 −$3,025 -100%
Alba Berlin vs. Brose Bamberg Jun 09 $2,825 +$1,185 +42%
Cholet vs. Paris Basketball Jun 09 $2,520 +$881 +35%
UD Almería vs. CD Castellón: O/U 4.5 Jun 09 $1,730 +$2,498 +144%
Azerbaijan vs. San Marino: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $3,550 +$3,075 +87%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Fenerbahce vs. Besiktas BUY Fenerbahce 77¢ $201 19m
Fenerbahce vs. Besiktas BUY Fenerbahce 76¢ $201 19m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 11.5 SELL Under 100¢ $1,249 19m
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5 BUY Under 76¢ $2,014 29m
Fenerbahce vs. Besiktas BUY Fenerbahce 77¢ $201 1h
CD Universidad Católica vs. CD Universidad de Concepción: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 80¢ $1,006 1h
CD Universidad Católica vs. CD Universidad de Concepción: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 81¢ $1,006 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 80¢ $1,006 1h
Fenerbahce vs. Besiktas BUY Fenerbahce 76¢ $101 1h
Fenerbahce vs. Besiktas BUY Fenerbahce 75¢ $101 1h
Fenerbahce vs. Besiktas BUY Fenerbahce 73¢ $101 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 73¢ $1,008 1h
Fenerbahce vs. Besiktas BUY Fenerbahce 74¢ $101 1h
Fenerbahce vs. Besiktas BUY Fenerbahce 76¢ $101 1h
Fenerbahce vs. Besiktas BUY Fenerbahce 75¢ $101 1h
Fenerbahce vs. Besiktas BUY Fenerbahce 73¢ $101 1h
Fenerbahce vs. Besiktas BUY Fenerbahce 72¢ $101 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 73¢ $1,008 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 73¢ $1,008 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 73¢ $1,008 1h
Málaga CF vs. UD Almería: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $3,583 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $2,474 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 81¢ $1,006 2h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 81¢ $1,006 2h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 78¢ $1,107 2h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Japan 76¢ $201 3h
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo BUY Atlanta Dream 84¢ $502 3h
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo BUY Atlanta Dream 83¢ $503 3h
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo BUY Atlanta Dream 83¢ $503 3h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Japan 76¢ $604 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,490.09 · official $6,490.09 (match) · 3500 history records