Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:01:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
F6 0xf657…7d16 sports 44 markets active 2h ago coverage 711d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$407 (-7%) realized −$275 · open −$132
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate67%28W / 14L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$135per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$1,002now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$66
7 days+$86
14 days+$86
30 days+$86
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% −$46
sports 2% +$50
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +1.6% -8.1% 100% 0% -7.9%
≤30d 14 +1.6% -8.1% 100% 0% -7.9%
≤90d 16 +5.9% -4.2% 94% 6% -7.7%
all 42 +15.2% +4.2% 67% 31% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.2% 31% -7.0%
10% -5.7% 31% -15.9%
15% -14.8% 31% -24.0%
20% -23.2% 29% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$3 · ×2.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.1 per $1 lost it wins $4.1
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

711d coverage
Net worth$1,002
Realized−$275
Unrealized−$132
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses28 / 14
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)42 / 44
History coverage711d
Avg bet$135
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Marko Arnautovic: 3+ goals No 99¢ 88¢ $1,133 $1,001 −$132 (-12%)
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 63¢ 38¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jude Bellingham: 4+ goals + assists Jun 28 $1,112 +$33 +3%
Pedro Porro: 4+ goals + assists Jun 27 $1,101 +$22 +2%
Nicolas Jackson: 3+ goals Jun 26 $1,100 +$11 +1%
Yuito Suzuki: 3+ goals Jun 26 $128 +$1 +1%
Deniz Undav: 3+ goals Jun 25 $128 +$3 +2%
Hwang Heechan: 3+ goals Jun 25 $126 +$1 +1%
Bilal El Khannouss: 3+ goals Jun 25 $126 +$1 +1%
Breel Embolo: 4+ goals + assists Jun 24 $126 +$1 +1%
Cucho Hernández: 3+ goals Jun 24 $126 +$1 +1%
Ismael Díaz: 3+ goals Jun 24 $126 +$1 +1%
João Félix: 3+ goals Jun 23 $126 +$1 +1%
Michael Olise: 3+ goals Jun 23 $125 +$4 +3%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Austria? Jun 22 $123 +$4 +3%
Fabián Ruiz: 4+ goals + assists Jun 21 $122 +$1 +1%
Pelicans vs. Kings Apr 06 $9 +$15 +172%
Islanders vs. Sabres Mar 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Magic vs. Cavaliers Mar 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Rangers vs. Wild Mar 23 $3 +$6 +186%
Hurricanes vs. Canucks Mar 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Maple Leafs vs. Lightning Feb 11 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Feb 11 $3 +$8 +245%
Bruins vs. Lightning Feb 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Flyers vs. Avalanche Feb 01 $5 +$13 +245%
Hornets vs. Warriors Jan 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Blue Jackets vs. Avalanche Jan 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Flyers vs. Oilers Jan 10 $5 +$7 +150%
Timberwolves vs. Hawks Jan 03 $6 +$10 +170%
Knicks vs. Hawks Dec 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Kraken vs. Ducks Dec 27 $3 +$5 +170%
Canucks vs. Islanders Dec 22 $4 +$5 +133%
Raptors vs. Heat Dec 19 $4 +$9 +203%
Kings vs. Pacers Dec 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Pelicans vs. Nets Dec 08 $9 +$6 +64%
Cavaliers vs. Pacers Dec 06 $7 +$3 +45%
Wizards vs. Pacers Nov 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Over $250M committed to the Monad public sale? Nov 27 $3 +$2 +54%
Pacers vs. Suns Nov 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Ursula von der Leyen reelected as EU president? Nov 12 $3 $0 +2%
Will Bronny make a 3 in his next game? Nov 12 $2 +$4 +178%
Trump speaks on RNC Day 3? Jul 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Lega receive more than 9% of votes? Jul 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Court temporarily allows Texas to arrest migrants? Jul 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Marko Arnautovic: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $1,133 1h
Jude Bellingham: 4+ goals + assists BUY No 97¢ $1,112 14h
Pedro Porro: 4+ goals + assists BUY No 98¢ $1,101 28h
Nicolas Jackson: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $1,100 39h
Yuito Suzuki: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $128 2d
Deniz Undav: 3+ goals BUY No 98¢ $128 2d
Hwang Heechan: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $126 3d
Bilal El Khannouss: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $126 3d
Breel Embolo: 4+ goals + assists BUY No 99¢ $126 3d
Cucho Hernández: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $126 4d
Ismael Díaz: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $126 4d
João Félix: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $126 4d
Michael Olise: 3+ goals BUY No 97¢ $125 5d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Austria? BUY No 97¢ $123 5d
Fabián Ruiz: 4+ goals + assists BUY No 99¢ $122 6d
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 63¢ $2 82d
Pelicans vs. Kings BUY Kings 36¢ $9 85d
Islanders vs. Sabres BUY Islanders 40¢ $5 89d
Magic vs. Cavaliers BUY Magic 28¢ $3 96d
Rangers vs. Wild BUY Rangers 35¢ $3 106d
Hurricanes vs. Canucks BUY Canucks 27¢ $2 115d
Maple Leafs vs. Lightning BUY Maple Leafs 35¢ $2 136d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY Top Esports 29¢ $3 142d
Bruins vs. Lightning BUY Bruins 34¢ $4 146d
Flyers vs. Avalanche BUY Flyers 29¢ $5 155d
Hornets vs. Warriors BUY Hornets 32¢ $4 162d
Blue Jackets vs. Avalanche BUY Blue Jackets 28¢ $3 168d
Flyers vs. Oilers BUY Flyers 40¢ $5 175d
Timberwolves vs. Hawks BUY Hawks 37¢ $6 179d
Knicks vs. Hawks BUY Hawks 32¢ $4 182d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,002.22 · official $1,002.22 (match) · 72 history records