Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T03:25:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf650…d85c world 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 436d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate37%10W / 17L
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 63% +$3
other 15% −$1
crypto 7% $0
sports 7% $0
politics 4% $0
culture 3% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 10 -0.6% -10.1% 30% 10% -8.6%
≤90d 14 -0.4% -9.9% 36% 7% -8.9%
all 27 -1.4% -10.8% 37% 4% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 4% -9.1%
10% -19.3% 0% -17.8%
15% -27.1% 0% -25.8%
20% -34.3% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 88% · top 2 93% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.36 per $1 lost it wins $2.36
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

436d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses10 / 17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)27 / 28
History coverage436d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 63¢ 46¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 24 $34 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $34 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 23 $31 $0 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $34 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 22 $31 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 27 $30 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 26 $32 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 25 $2 $0 -17%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 25 $29 +$4 +14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 25 $29 $0 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 25 $32 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 24 $29 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $32 $0 +0%
Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? Dec 13 $2 −$1 -31%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 13 $1 $0 +1%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 27 $5 $0 -5%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $2 $0 +1%
Will 'The Fantastic Four: First Steps' have the best domestic opening Jun 07 $5 $0 -1%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 06 $2 $0 +2%
Will the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft get traded? Apr 20 $19 $0 +1%
Will Cameron Ward be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? Apr 19 $19 $0 +0%
Will Scott Stringer win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York C Apr 18 $19 $0 +0%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 18 $19 $0 +0%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the San Francisco 49ers? Apr 17 $19 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? Apr 16 $21 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40k in April? Apr 15 $21 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $34 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $34 2h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $34 5h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $34 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 96¢ $31 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 96¢ $31 16h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $7 20h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $27 20h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $34 21h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 52¢ $31 28h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 52¢ $6 30h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 52¢ $25 30h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 65¢ $1 27d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $30 28d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $26 28d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $4 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 62¢ $3 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 62¢ $27 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 63¢ $26 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 63¢ $6 28d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $12 28d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $19 28d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $32 28d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL Yes $1 29d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY Yes $2 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 59¢ $32 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $11 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $17 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 61¢ $29 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $6 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.41 · official $0.00 (match) · 72 history records