Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:26:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
F6 0xf64e…52fb sports 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$66 (+18%) realized +$69 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%6W / 7L
Drawdown86%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$75
7 days+$58
14 days+$58
30 days+$58
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% +$75
other 41% −$20
crypto 2% −$7
world 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+3.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +30.5% +18.1% 44% 44% +5.4%
≤30d 9 +30.5% +18.1% 44% 44% +5.4%
≤90d 13 +14.5% +3.6% 46% 46% +3.7%
all 13 +14.5% +3.6% 46% 46% +3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.6% 46% +3.7%
10% -6.3% 46% -6.3%
15% -15.4% 38% -15.3%
20% -23.7% 31% -23.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 76% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late +42% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$10 · ×2.02 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.73 per $1 lost it wins $1.73
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$69
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses6 / 7
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage104d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Yes $3 $0 −$3 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$14 +141%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $15 +$19 +126%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $29 −$14 -49%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 +$76 +149%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 −$34 -66%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $50 +$13 +26%
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 13 $48 −$7 -14%
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $51 −$6 -11%
Will Ivory Coast advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 13 $51 −$4 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Apr 04 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Apr 04 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Apr 04 $1 +$1 +70%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Apr 04 $5 +$2 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $3 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 82¢ $15 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 72¢ $4 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 59¢ $5 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 79¢ $32 4h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 56¢ $3 4h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $15 4h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL Yes 70¢ $14 21h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $29 23h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 96¢ $68 24h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 82¢ $58 24h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $51 25h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes $18 28h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $51 28h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 79¢ $50 46h
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL No 29¢ $41 2d
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 14¢ $45 2d
Will Ivory Coast advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL No 22¢ $47 2d
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 15¢ $51 2d
Will Ivory Coast advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 23¢ $51 2d
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 32¢ $48 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $7 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up $1 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $2 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 72d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 103d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.03 · official $0.03 (match) · 29 history records