Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:22:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf64c…b914 crypto 192 markets active 1h ago coverage 67d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$146 (-2%) realized −$147 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate64%121W / 67L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day7.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$246
7 days−$246
14 days−$366
30 days−$453
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$559
sports 2% +$3
other 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +3.7% -6.2% 56% 33% -20.2%
≤30d 174 +2.3% -7.4% 67% 16% -16.0%
≤90d 188 -1.1% -10.5% 64% 15% -17.2%
all 188 -1.1% -10.5% 64% 15% -17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 15% -17.2%
10% -19.1% 9% -25.1%
15% -26.9% 7% -32.3%
20% -34.1% 5% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$14 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$147
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses121 / 67
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)188 / 192
History coverage67d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 188 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+8%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+8%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+22%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $49 +$40 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 17 $215 −$101 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $139 +$11 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $106 +$33 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $116 −$10 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $750 −$265 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $380 +$2 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $335 +$45 +13%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $2 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4PM ET Jun 03 $19 −$9 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 03 $157 −$83 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 03 $88 +$14 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 03 $221 −$44 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 03 $131 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 03 $131 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 02 $25 −$11 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 02 $24 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 02 $31 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 02 $11 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 02 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 02 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 02 $10 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 02 $3 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 02 $11 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 02 $26 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 02 $11 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 02 $17 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 02 $8 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5PM ET May 30 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET May 30 $29 −$9 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 30 $35 −$22 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET May 30 $20 −$5 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET May 30 $18 +$22 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET May 30 $19 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 30 $17 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 30 $17 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET May 30 $14 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET May 30 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 30 $15 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11AM ET May 30 $12 +$8 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 30 $6 −$3 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET May 30 $2 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET May 30 $9 −$2 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 30 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 29 $1 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 29 $18 −$6 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET May 29 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 29 $5 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $49 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Down 68¢ $49 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $66 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Up 22¢ $66 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $149 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $139 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 43¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $116 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $110 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 33¢ $110 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $126 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 73¢ $126 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $133 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 29¢ $133 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $381 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $380 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Down 42¢ $380 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $335 3h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 45h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 13d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 13d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 13d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 13d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4PM ET SELL Down 29¢ $10 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $19 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 19¢ $19 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $55 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 37¢ $55 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.50 · official $9.50 (match) · 619 history records